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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (51985)9/9/2013 2:30:36 PM
From: E_K_S  Respond to of 78644
 
Intrepid Potash, Inc.(NYSE:IPI) - Sold 50% of my high priced shares @ $14.07/share booked a small gain in 30 days.

Will hold my low cost shares to see what Putin does regarding the recent break up of the potash cartel. According to the Seeking Alpha article Putin said the "Belarus potash dispute needs to be resolved". IPI selling just above BV and is the only U.S. producer of this fertilizer, so I feel it is still undervalued at the current price..

EKS



To: E_K_S who wrote (51985)11/18/2013 8:37:52 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78644
 
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) - News where Russian Cartel for potash may be back in place
CVR Partners, LP (UAN) - A cheap fertilizer company that may be a value candidate

Uralkali Holder Reaches Deal to Sell Stake (POT) (IPI) (AGU)

9:39 AM 11/18/2013 - StreetInsider

Suleiman Kerimov and his partner have reached a deal to sell their 33% stake in potash producer Uralkali to Mikhail Prokhorov, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal values Uralkali at $20 billion. Investors hope the deal will help end a dispute with Belarus.
Traders are watching shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), and related stocks
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I am looking at CVR Partners, LP (UAN) as a possible "value" fertilizer play. The debt profile appears ok at 1.2x Net income equals LT debt, forward PE 12.7 and the stock is selling near it's 52wk low of $17.12/share. UAN uses petroleum coke as their feed stock not Natural Gas.

The gasifier converts low priced petroleum coke into a hydrogen rich synthesis gas. The syngas is then converted into anhydrous ammonia in an ultra high efficiency ammonia plant. Subsequently, the ammonia is further upgraded into UAN in a fully integrated UAN plant.
UAN also pays a nice dividend (currently yielding 13.3%) but the payout ratio is 130% and is probably not sustainable. My value premise is that as NG prices remain low, the competitive advantage for UAN is small. But as NG prices increase, UAN margins's will expand relative to their competitors. The long term play is a bet on higher NG prices while trying to buy at/near it's low.

Has anybody looked at UAN? Does this look like a potential "value buy" candidate company?

EKS