Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (179912)	8/8/2013 7:00:37 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Recommended By evestor LoneClone Respond to of 206316

EPA Provides RFS2 Policy Update — As expected, no major changes for 2013 although agency flexibility looks likely for the 2014 rule... 6 August 2013 ¦ 6 pages ir.citi.com The US Environmental Protection Agency issued its much anticipated final rule for the 2013 Renewable Fuel Standard today. The abrupt timing of the announcement perhaps threw the market for a whirl as RIN prices dropped 18% this morning to $0.85/gal in response to broker markets and news reports suggesting an imminent EPA release, easing RFS2.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (179912)	8/23/2013 11:44:52 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Recommended By evestor LoneClone Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

US Independent Refiners A Look at 3Q EPS Risks 23 August 2013 Report-170 (438.87KB) Bottom Line: In the 3rd quarter, the global oil market has suffered a sharp tightening. The call on OPEC spiked by over 1MBD, before we consider more recent disruptions to Libya. A spike in crude is not normally good for refiners. Unfortunately it occurred in one of the usual peak earnings periods for the US refiners. 2013 was always a transition year for us. With 3Q disrupted by this crude spike, you could categorize 2013 as a "bust". While we'd then like to focus your attention on the good things that could happen in 2014 (e.g. continued logistics monetization, Gulf coast oversupply), the magnitude of required cuts to 3Q consensus keeps us on the sidelines. Oct/Nov should provide a better entry point. VLO least at risk for numbers: If capture rates improve given wider light heavy spreads then VLO could match consensus EPS. If we were to mark to market today, the cuts to consensus EBITDA would be 25% for MPC, 23% for TSO, 22% for HFC, 15% for DK, 12% for PSX, 6% for WNR and 3% for VLO. EBITDA for ALJ and NTI would be in-line with consensus estimates. However relative value favors WNR, TSO, MPC, PSX over VLO: The large logistics businesses of these companies is not reflected in relative multiples. Indeed the easiest call we can make once 3Q consensus is behind us, is to buy PSX, given refining only accounts for c30% of value and chemicals/midstream is doing very nicely thank you - see our report PSX – Underestimated Logistics.