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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14503)	8/15/2013 2:00:57 PM
From: D.B. Cooper	3 Recommendations Recommended By ksera Libbyt roguedolphin Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

NO Don't stop posting. LOL I am so excited to see you posting again. I miss the old IHUB days hearing about your twins, chocolate chip addiction and of course your take on the markets. Don

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14503)	8/16/2013 11:21:06 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 33421

>> While many have spent countless columns writing about the new paradigm of Gold and the various supportive fundamental reasons for owning it, few have ventured into what appears to be a more obvious reason for the decade long rise in the price of Gold - The Financialization of Gold. << Agree. Whether it's part of the new SDR or whether China partially backs it's currency it's coming. Don't need a US standard or even a global standard. Just need 1-2 reserve/major currencies to bring back into the system. What attracted me in the first place to gold is what a small percentage is owned relative to the overall financial system. Physical ownership is questionable in most cases when a true crisis hits. As Tobacco Jack says we just need gold to be priced correctly "once". Gold still well under it's inflation adjusted high for 1980 and well under where it reached as a % of overall financial assets at the peak in 1980. With the whole world printing it's when not if scenario. I disagree that physical will still be available with plenty of warning later on in the cycle (at least not in size). Also you'll have the increased chances gov. will not allow you to buy in along with much greater increases of buying a fake. I disagree with those who have made physical more than a 50%+ holding as gov. can and will change the rules, but somewhere between 10-30% seems prudent. Multiple ways to buy hard assets, art, real estate, vintage autos, wine are all flying so doesn't have to be that gold is the only winner, but it's certainly the most transportable asset. >> Gold charts appear to best support a rise to back-test the $1,500 resistance, then a drop to test the $1,050 support. The pattern in Gold appears to suggest a long, meandering trading range above $1,050 if it does drop to make a final low in that area. I suspect that range will go from $1,050 to $1,600 over the course of several years. Think of it as an a-b-c correction off the all-time highs, with the "a" down to $1,050, a "b" up to $1,600, followed many years later by a "c" down to $1,050 or possibly even $850 to finish the correction off the all-time highs. << Who am I to doubt your charts. That said looking at the HUI/GDX you could also make the case that Wave I peaked in 2008 and we've had our ABC correction now. HUI:Gold ratio dipped below 2008 levels and got close to 2001 levels. HUI:$SPX also dipped below 2008 levels and is just starting to turn up on a monthly basis. We agree that IT is probably still higher. Leaders such as RGLD look like they've made 5 waves up from the lows already, but still plenty of laggards/value out there - plenty of junk as well.