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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kimberley who wrote (14511)	8/16/2013 2:58:38 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Traditionally, outside of back to school spending, August has been a very tepid retail month overall in the US. Furthermore, the hangover carries into the end of September, as the credit card bills are received in early Sept and due later that month. From data I've been reading, the reinstatement of the FICA and Medicare taxes had a bit of a lag effect, and they appear to be kicking in during the summer. It's likely tax refunds in the 1st quarter cushioned the effect a bit, with drawdowns in savings making up the difference. The big wildcard for retailers is fuel prices. What doesn't go in the tank often times ends up being spent in the store. In edit, I should add that federal student loans have been a huge part of the July/August retail the past several years, and what happens in that program has a big effect on summer retail spending.