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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale J. who wrote (6265)	12/8/1997 1:07:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Yes, that is all I could ask for - "The Level Playing Field" that sounds like a good heading. I think that it is important to point out the bottoming indicators I mentioned several posts back, maybe to the point of being redundant. I find that I must repeatedly remind myself to look out for this factor: When a stock (or market/segment) fails to move up on the release of good news or upgrades and the valuation is near the top of the stock's historical range, chances are that the market has already factored in all the good news and is at or near a top. When a stock has fallen or shown little momentum and its valuation measures are near the low end of the historical range and "bad" news or earnings revisions have little or no negative effect, chances are that the "worst" has already been anticipated and the stock is ready to start a move up. Over the past few weeks Quantum has been a good example of this logic: When it was near its recent highs the stock failed to move up despite a strong earnings report and good outlook and despite strong earnings estimates and ratings statements by analysts. Then when arms away bad news first hit among Quantum's competitors, the stock started to get hit in sympathy. More recently, when analysts have (finally) revised their earnings estimates or recommendations, QNTM has shrugged off the news because it was already more than adequately factored into the stock price and has started a move up. Whether this type of action is attributed to momentum, psychology, analysts arbitrary dissemination of revisions and recommendations, etc. is nice to know and may help your understanding and decisions but is not all too important - the phenomena works most of the time whether you understand why or not. While no single indicator or investment method can capture all the unexpected factors that might influence a stock or segment or market, this fairly simple indicator is one of the best I know of.