SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (61171)8/21/2013 4:14:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom3 Recommendations

Recommended By
Kirk ©
Return to Sender
Sam

  Respond to of 95536
 
These are 5 minute charts that show what happened when the Fed put out their minutes at 2:00 EDT today. Some violent reaction here, but at the end of the day, all were lower at the close of trading. Taper terror is alive and well.




To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (61171)8/21/2013 4:21:09 PM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Return to Sender

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95536
 
I think you need to look at the total S&P500, or even the all stocks in the broader market.
I keep looking at the 24 stocks in the SOXM that report on the CY/FY basis that expect earnings to rise 44 percent in 2014 compared to 2013. How is that going to happen in this environment. The SEMI report from yesterday did nothing to spark a positive feeling about future growth. JMO.
I update the estimates for the S&P500 from their website once a month so I can make a table of GAAP and operating earnings estimates for this and next year. I updated my table today and estimates are down about 5% since peaking in the Spring. Here is a clip from my current issue before the update which will be in Sept.



Since then,
  • 10-yr Yield is up to 2.85%
  • the market is lower, now up about 16.5% YTD
  • the dividend yield is higher at ~2.14%
The Fed just cut GDP estimates today. I haven't had time to read the report yet but I think it reflects what companies are telling us... you can only grow earnings so much from squeezing workers harder and cutting costs. Eventually we need changes in government that are pro growth rather than punishing to small companies... Just think how few IPOs there are for small companies there are these days...

Kirk