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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (61174)	8/21/2013 5:53:03 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Respond to of 95536

OT: Excellent discussion Don and Kirk. Thank you both for sharing the information. Personally I don't think this is off topic at all since the number of companies raising or lowering guidance is very important to where stocks go from here. As is where interest rates go. I am an investor who has been concerned that maybe the stock market was getting overvalued due to these artificially low interest rates. This condition has been making stocks look appealing. I mean other than flipping houses again where else has low interest rates made speculating rampant but the stock market? But things can change rapidly. The bond market has been rising in anticipation of the Fed tapering. Truth is that even if the Fed does taper very slowly our government cannot print free money based upon bonds that no one will want to own in the future forever. Who wants to earn less than 3% on their money? Not me but we all are owners of a great deal of U.S. Debt as long as you are a taxpayer. Rising interest rates could change the whole paradigm. Even if all we do is go back to average interest rates. observationsandnotes.blogspot.com A quick glance at the next couple of charts will tell anyone that we are living with interest rates so low that they are not likely to be seen again in our lifetimes. multpl.com multpl.com As far as the stock market goes I have seen it as overvalued for a couple of years. I have already been largely in cash. If I can get a secure return of 5% or more I'll do it! Be that from CD's, treasuries, or buying undervalued stocks after the market corrects that pay dividends. But right now there are no safe bets. Bonds still pay too little except those that are extremely high risk. Most stocks are overvalued and therefore likely to correct when bond prices rise high enough to make them seem like the safe alternate to stocks. JMHO, RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (61174)	8/22/2013 9:44:57 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Hi Kirk and Don, Seems to me taking less of the Doctors medicine is always a sign of getting healthier. There is a lot of fear mongering going on about a very important and healthy achievement here. If I recall correctly QE 1 and @ ( I think) resulted in a boost in the price of commodities - almost entirely. The fed is all about healthy banks.The feds actions are intended to boost bank capital and strength. It now seems JPM and the big banks were all on the same page about commodities,as QE taper is being talked about ,the banks are getting fined for mainpulating metals and oil commodities - surprise surprise oh please just slap my hand - this is normal business. QE tapering will put a lid on commodities.Now that capex has been boosted ie Glencore buying Xstrata excess capacity result in lower commodity prices for a looong time. This is the stuff of margin expansion for the industrial sector. As for semis - smartphones and laptop seem to be growing 46-51 % and PC declining 5-11%. That's still the best combined growth we've seen in this sector for years. There are a LOT of chips being made out there globally. There has also been substantial consolidation amongst the key players - mostly in the equipment sector.Dell and HP still seem to be struggling with the PC decline and no real smartphone/tablet winners. As rates go up from what will be generational lows for our investment lives - I believe the financial sector and technology sectors are poised for high correlation growth. It is time for rotation from precious metals and materials to banking and tech. Food growers will see commodities decline (beans are no longer in the teens) food makers may well benefit from this. I'm thinking the economic downturn will be greatly overblown and conservative sectors have already had there prices topped out and will now go sideways. Just my thoughts and time will tell. Thanks to both of you for your solid posts! Bob