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To: RMF who wrote (51567)

8/25/2013 12:07:09 PM

From: FJB

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 85487

Warming causes CO2 to rise, not vice versa. The ice core data shows the lag to be 800 years.

For more than 2 million years our earth has cycled in and out of Ice Ages, accompanied by massive ice sheets accumulating over polar landmasses and a cold, desert-like global climate. Although the tropics during the Ice Age were still tropical, the temperate regions and sub-tropical regions were markedly different than they are today. There is a strong correlation between temperature and CO2 concentrations during this time.

Historically, glacial cycles of about 100,000 years are interupted by brief warm interglacial periods-- like the one we enjoy today. Changes in both temperatures and CO2 are considerable and generally synchronized, according to data analysis from ice and air samples collected over the last half century from permanent glaciers in Antarctica and other places. Interglacial periods of 15,000- 20,000 years provide a brief respite from the normal state of our natural world-- an Ice Age Climate. Our present interglacial vacation from the last Ice Age began about 18,000 years ago.

Over the last 400,000 years the natural upper limit of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is assumed from the ice core data to be about 300 ppm. Other studies using proxy such as plant stomata, however, indicate this may closer to the average value, at least over the last 15,000 years. Today, CO2 concentrations worldwide average about 380 ppm. Compared to former geologic periods, concentrations of CO2 in our atmosphere are still very small and may not have a statistically measurable effect on global temperatures. For example, during the Ordovician Period 460 million years ago CO2 concentrations were 4400 ppm while temperatures then were about the same as they are today.

Do rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause increasing global temperatures, or could it be the other way around? This is one of the questions being debated today. <span style="font-size:1.3em;">Interestingly, CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the cause of the temperature increases. </span>One thing is certain-- earth's climate has been warming and cooling on it's own for at least the last 400,000 years, as the data below show. At year 18,000 and counting in our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age, we may be due-- some say overdue-- for return to another icehouse climate!

NOTE: All charts were plotted directly from composite data sets using Lotus 1-2-3.

CO2 Graph Sources:	Temperature Graph Sources:
2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data	2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

To: RMF who wrote (51567)	8/25/2013 1:44:29 PM
From: Brumar89	1 Recommendation Recommended By FJB Respond to of 85487

Can you assure me that 500 ppm CO2 or 600 ppm CO2 won't cause warming that will be irreversible? There's not good reason to think so. Carbon's warming effect is exaggerated. The models which predict catastrophe rely on presumed major positive feedbacks that magnify the greenhouse effect of CO2. The feedbacks may actually be negative.

To: RMF who wrote (51567)	8/25/2013 1:57:18 PM
From: Brian Sullivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

Are you saying that the earth won't warm and the earth's ice won't melt Over the last 200,000 years the Earth has been in an Ice-Age over 75% of that period. The real climatic catastrophe would be for the Earth to return to "normal" and have another Ice-Age. Where I live there was Ice over a mile thick. The climate was too cold to support large scale agriculture in North America. We can only hope that it is irreversible and that we never experience another Ice Age.