Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (2442)	8/29/2013 11:17:10 AM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 202924

Gold’s outperformance in September has not been matched by silver, zinc, copper, and crude oil in any monthly period over the last 10+ years. November and December are also strong performance months for gold. Has gold's seasonality changed? A wide variety of consumer driven reasons have been cited to explain the seasonality. China and India remain the key jewellery markets. In Q1 this year, China and India accounted for over 60% of jewellery demand. In India, jewellery purchases, prior to the various festivals, including the wedding seasons (November-December and mid-January to May), Diwali (occurring either in October or November) and Akha Teej (late April or early May) has historically been a time of peak demand in that country. Increased import tariffs on gold into India do not seem to have dampened demand and, if anything, expect the price pullback to be supportive of demand in these countries over the balance of the year. In the Canada, Europe and U.S., purchases prior to Christmas, as well as Lunar New Year in Asia, have also been cited for bumping gold prices late in the calendar year. It's worth noting that U.S. consumer demand increased in Q1/13 over Q1/12, the FIRST year-over-year increase since late Q3/05. Some market watchers contend that gold's seasonality has changed due to non-seasonal investment demand (gold ETFs). After the rough year we've been through, it looks like total holdings in gold ETFs appear to have stabilized, which in the short term seems to have reduced the pressure on the gold price. With gold prices now up ~20% from their 52-week lows, does the gold seasonality trade still have upside?