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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (34460)	8/31/2013 8:13:33 AM
From: niceguy767	1 Recommendation Recommended By zax Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

This Swedbank analysis, not unlike Deutsche bank, takes the negative outlook as its starting point and rationalizes that stance, albeit with a little more substance than Deutsche bank. The analysis takes a look at the past couple years of declining volumes and extrapolate that into the future as if it is a one way street with no end. The vital and missing piece in their analysis is that Lumias continue to outpace market growth by a vast amount and that Lumias ASP is far higher than non-Lumias, and, at some point, if not already, a much, much more profitable segment for Nokia. The implied notion that it is better to sell phones under $100 than to ride the very powerful and very positive Lumia wave is a very tenuous (and unsupportable) thread to hang their analysis on. What will be very interesting in Q3 numbers, in light of this analysis, will be the change inQ3 D&S volumes over Q@. Without a doubt, Swedbank is implying a significant decline...a suggestion that may be very wrong. As for NSN, recent new contracts should help ease any pain in any Softbank reductions. So here is the upshot: 1. D&S Q3 volumes will be better than implied by Swedbank, especially the much, much higher ASP Lumia segment. 2. NSN, especially now that their statements are 100% integratedf into NOK financial staements will surprise positively. 3. NOK's progress in Q3 is likely to be much, much more positive than these naysayers would like the market to believe. (No matter, though, if NOK does show the Swedbank, Deutsche and Bernsteins of the world to be offbase in Q3, these same naysayers'll be back in Q4, after the dust settles, with more of the same.)