To: jkb who wrote (1952 ) 12/9/1997 7:38:00 AM From: steve goldman Read Replies (2) | Respond to
While this thread is oriented toward short term trading, I have been recently buying APM and a number of other hard drive companies as a long term play, long term being maybe 12 to 18 months. My feelings are that tech is US's strong point, hard drives are high growth, these companies have substantial, big time revenues and great balance sheets. When you trade long term, you have to understanding of the possibility of a stock tanking 10, 15, 25% on you. Nonetheless, this is where diversification, allocation and averging helps. For instance, I would like to own ultimately 5000 WDC and about 5000 APM, assuming major changes (not pricing pressure andone time charges) don't occur. So when I see a stock that was 50, 60, with strong earnings, strong balance and high grwoth get knocked down to 20, 24ish, I get interested, AS A LONG TERM PLAYER. Nonetheless, you never committ to much in trying to pick the bottom. You can't get the very last dollar soyou have to pick a good price, and buy some. Keep reserves to take advantages of more volatile swings and try not to average down unless you truly feel you are getting a great price. At this point, I have about 30% of the positions I want in those few hard drive cos. I will wait till they bottom out, 1,2,3 6 months=ish, then I will buy more as theymove up. Some of these are multi-billion dollar companies with earnings potential much greater than some networker that does 100 million a year. WDC does that every week. This has nothing to do with earnings, but earnings potential.
