To: Dorine Essey who wrote (1779 ) 12/9/1997 7:53:00 AM From: Tom M Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2493
Yes Dorine, as I stated in my recent post:www3.techstocks.com FWIW, I've since doubled my position before yesterday's pop. I'm expecting a few safe points out of this as it's too beaten down, IMO. I doubt we'll hold 10 without a quick drop back down unless the analysts generate some momentum via direct or sector recommendations. Both analysts covering zoom have it a Hold now which leaves plenty of room for improvement (after they're done accumulating on volume like yesterday IMO). I'm not risking too much on this long term although who knows how long the big modem upgrade cycle will last - we know everyone will upgrade. With the recent standards progress pointing to a standard that all can adopt on an equal footing, I feel there's plenty of money to be made by many modem vendors, although I'd expect a bigger percentage price appreciation in a stock at current book value than in one 4 times book value like COMS. Crazier things can certainly happen - remember how much some were paying for the other modem-only company USRX?! After this year's loss, the analysts have Zoom earning .40 next year for a forward P/E of about 15. I'm hoping the .40 was very conservative due to the bad year they just had, and the uncertainty of a standard at the time. At any rate, with positive earnings projected instead of negative, and a bottom repeatedly tested around its book value, I see more reward than risk. I like the Bell Zoom recommendation, I've had good luck with the Zoom modems I've installed, Zoom says their current modems are software upgradable to future standards, I like the potential for lots of Xmas sales, and my internet provider has already upgraded to Flex. I feel even better about my short term decision after seeing what's huge volume for Zoom. If anyone's waiting for a 3,000,000 share day in a small stock like this, don't hold your breath. One last comment, I find nothing more distasteful than people taking up 50% of the bandwidth on a quiet thread talking up or down a stock they have no position in. I feel it's quite naive to think that one (or two) can influence the direction of their prefered stock by posting negative rhetoric about a competitor at book value. They say they have nothing to be afraid of so why are they afraid? I feel one should put their money where their mouth is, short or long, or keep their mouth where their money is (ie where 80% of their posts are). regards, Tom