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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (43017)	9/8/2013 11:04:15 AM
From: koan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86356

I know a bit about statistics and standard deviations. Here are the full statistics. 1.5 standard deviations up or down is about 1 in 10. Here is the big picture: The graph below shows arctic sea ice extent. To keep it simple, the thesis of the significance of the arctic pack ice melt over say the last 6 years is this: In just the last 6 years the pack ice melt has averaged about 2+ standard deviations below the mean 3 times. More than 2 standard deviations is only supposed to happen about once every 500 years. This happened 3 times in the last 6 years!! So what is the chance of a 1 in 500 event happening 3 times in the last 6 years!?? 2007: astounded and surprised all the climate scientists as it was soo dramatic. It was about 2.5 standard deviations below the mean. 2012: Then that amount of melt happened again in 2012. 2013: is about 1.5 standard deviations despite a very late winter in the arctic. The summer when it came was hot as hell with 90 degree days on Russia's side and record forest fires so extensive the smoke covered most of Russia.