Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (54278)	9/9/2013 12:43:36 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 222529

I think all models, without exception, are dealing with numbers in a random or quasi-random series. They tell us buy points and sell points. If the price-series oscillates, you will get fast buy-points and sell-points that are close to or outside the range of stops, or even if not, are high taxes on the process. Only a perfect predictor can avoid this. But that must mean a model is a perfect predictor that can tell prices in advance. This is hard to evaluate in general. The fairest test is to turn on the model in automatic with money and go away for 1 year. That means a test must not even look or touch. But I really do not know anyone who does that because it is hard or impossible to do from a psychological standpoint. I think it's also why we may not have replaced pilots by software and flown big planes on automatic. Some models are better than others, but there is always risk.