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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (52362)	9/12/2013 10:26:14 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Re AMBC - I am not sure any more if AMBC is as good as I thought it woulf be. For example, due to the "fresh start accouting" they have written up the value of their assets by more than 1B$. Some of this is due to expected recoveries, so my take is that some lawsuit wins are already build in. The filings are some of the most convoluted mess that I have seen so far. I think it is more or less a black box, or one could regard it at a very long dated call option on recoveries. The balance sheet is ~25B$ and AMBC market cap is <0.9B$, sonif something goes in AMBC's favor, the impact could be huge. Due to the fact, that AMBC has huge NOL and no real ongoing business, a merger with another company is very likely at some point.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (52362)	9/12/2013 10:42:04 AM
From: deeno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

AMBAC used to be one of the biggest insurers of muni bonds. I wondered how BK and emerging from BK would affect thier legacy obligations to past muni backing? I was guessing the income they get would be those legacy backings, but were they able to cxl obligations on deals gone bad, or have they been paying all along? Also i see very little in the way of writing new business, so how does one see growth? Perhaps muni insurance is no longer a significant product line? Should an entity like PR or CA default no one survives in this industry anyway so I think that a TBTF moniker might apply. If you held a bond backed by AMBAC, how safe would you feel based on your research?