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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robt justine who wrote (377)	12/8/1997 9:56:00 PM
From: men mailman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2068

I am getting hints that the company should be making some statement within the next few days. It is my personal belief that once there is a statement and part of the bubble of the cloud of silence burst, most of the skepticism will fade. Should the statement be the audit results, either the stock goes to 0 or 30 and I would believe it will hit 30. The results will not be bad EVEN IF THERE SHOULD ANOTHER $20-30 mil for reserves. It is insane to fear anything more. I totaly disagree in regard to the NY investigation. First there is no smoking gun,Second the worst they could get is a slap on the wrist. No company is put out of business for this in todays age. Thirdly, they cannot afford to risk 2 million people uninsured especialy the preexsisting. I don't think it is a long haul. It will probably be soon clear if this stock hits 0 or $30

To: robt justine who wrote (377)	12/8/1997 9:57:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 2068

<<The 20% membership growth you cite is naturally what is coming in the front door. Once those slipping out the back door cease, then I believe some stability will arrive.>> Not naturally. According to the article, the consensus is 20% NET growth (400,000 added even in the worst case scenario) among the largest benefits consultants. That puts revenues up near $6 billion. That's a lot of money coming in. To be had for $1.7 billion. At $20, that's only $658/enrollee in a plan growing at $20%. In any case, the article was not all bad: exchange2000.com What's the worst case? How about a $200M fine - they have insurance against the lawsuits? Now that's like 5 X too extreme, but lets look at it. In AR and cash they have $1.006 billion, in AP they owe $561 million. Even a $200M hit is survivable. The article mentions that Oxford is financially one of the strongest. I admit that the next announcement is likely not to be a good one, but that's why the stock is down to $20-$21. So what's the fear, that NY will shut Oxford down? Who here thinks that will happen? Can NY do it? No. And for the long term holder, what is the risk when the patients don't want to leave Oxford and like it so much. Very very rare for the majority of patients and even a minority of doctors to love their HMO. I anticipate a dip in enrollment momentum this year, only to resume next year. Fact is December is the worst month for stocks that have been hit hard during the year. Fact is that the fall from $75 is very recent, and the Street is just turning its back in disgust during an otherwise bad month. After all, analysts absolutely loved this stock. Fine line. The franchise is still the best around for the patients, and for many doctors too. Aetna and Cigna had similar problems with IBNR mis-estimates after their recent acquisitions, but the analysts weren't in love there, so the hate isn't as severe either. Dangerous would be if I was at all margined on this stock. A 2 year (no one is looking out there) double is a 41% annualized return. I see disgust everywhere - my e-mail can attest to that. Is anyone else out there bullish? If not, I like my position. Good Investing, Mike