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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dee Jay who wrote (10341)	12/8/1997 10:57:00 PM
From: Dick Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

When the standard comes, and Joe Sixpack---- Dee Jay asks Moonray, but its an interesting question, so I'm going to take a swing. He asks, " what do you think about the impact of the impending standard on all those modems clogging the channel? I mean, if you're a consumer with any sort of savvy why would you buy a modem that will require upgrading when, if you wait a month or two, the dealers will have the "standard" firmware models on the shelf?" "...there's Joe Sixpack who is getting a computer for the family and would equate downloading with brain surgery or rocket science...." Yes, we all know that you can upgrade the modem if you know how, which is why we already bought an x2 modem. If poor ol' Joe Sixpack really exists (not proven, but some people, lets say in Texas, may have better samples), he probably can't tell the difference between the not-yet-upgraded modem, and the newer one with the standard-compliant code already in it. Otherwise, he'll get his 7th-grade kid to help him with the download, and he'll get upgraded fine. If he doesn't have a kid, he can usually borrow one from somewhere. If I were a retailer, I'd use the release of the standard-compliant modem to put the margins up a little, say maybe $10. That's about the right price for saving you the trouble with downloading. Will it happen? It's hard to know about market pressure, especially since the standard seems likely to become official during the post-Xmas slow time. What I'm fairly sure will happen is that, when the standard is finally ratified, there will be code ready very quickly. After all, aren't both the x2 and K56 companies in the standards process arguing; they should know in advance what will finally come out. So we can expect the standard to be coded on signing day, or very shortly thereafter. But, we're talking about retail here, and the channel is fairly deep, maybe about 6-8 weeks if 3Com is on the new plan, and other companies are probably there somewhere, too. So, I expect a big press excitement about the standardization, with the code not at CompUSA yet. The first upgraders are going to be downloading. Then, if our hypothetical Joe Sixpack reads about the new standard, and how he should finally buy a faster modem, he'll probably get a non-upgraded one, and have to download anyway. Good think Joe doesn't read the computer press, or this might happen. I don't really believe in Joe Sixpack as a computer buyer; he usually gets help from that kid or from his brother-in-law the computer geek (who may have been Joe Twelvepack not long before, but got on the net and learned), and takes either their advice or their old system. Or, he buys a package system, and takes whatever comes with it, being reassured by the salesman that it will work just great, no matter what it is. Your thoughts?

To: Dee Jay who wrote (10341)	12/8/1997 10:58:00 PM
From: Moonray	Respond to of 22053

Well Dee Jay, I'm hoping some of the inventory is sold at Xmas (only comes once a year, you know). Perhaps the rest can be recalled from Best Buy and fitted with the "new standard". In any case, I've recently read that 3COM is rapidly bringing things under control and in a couple of months there should be no problem. There are a couple of things that are puzzling me: 1) Are some of the smaller flex modem producers (like Zoom) also having an inventory problem and could it sink these companies? 2) Upgrading your personal modem to a standard is for naught unless your ISP has upgraded from x2 or flex. How is this going to work? Brought to you by a 33.6 Sportster upgraded to x2 with a ROM and a promise of free upgrade to ITU Standard (probably March?) o~~~ O

To: Dee Jay who wrote (10341)	12/8/1997 11:32:00 PM
From: David Lawrence	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

I'll weigh in with an opinion that looks at it from a different perspective. Your scenario applies to the industry as a whole, whereas my comments differentiate the key players. It's nothing that I haven't said before, but I think it bears repeating...... Message 2911029

To: Dee Jay who wrote (10341)	12/9/1997 2:29:00 AM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22053

>>>I mean, if you're a consumer with any sort of savvy why would you buy a modem that will require upgrading when, if you wait a month or two, the dealers will have the "standard" firmware models on the shelf?<<< Dee Jay I have a 56K USR Sportster internal modem which takes two-fivw minute to upgrade via an 800 number. It truely is a piece of cake, and I'd think this would hold true for most brands of 56K modems which are software upgradable. With the easy install program and the Upgrade Wizard from USR I'm sure Joe 12 pak could do it. I suspect we will see ads when the standards are settled telling us idiots what web site to visit OR what 800 number to call for an auto upgrade.

To: Dee Jay who wrote (10341)	12/9/1997 8:44:00 AM
From: Pullin-GS	Respond to of 22053

For once DJ you and I are in agreement. Your theory applies equally to the providers....if they are wanting to upgrade to newer equipment, many will hold off till the true standard is out and some will choose depending on who is first with the standard. Remember the ASND fiasco with the early rockwell chips? So not only will the current 56K modems be useless now due to lack of ISP deployment in most cases, don't expect it to get any better. Why would the ISPs upgrade to something that only causes grief (customers wanting full 56K, more demanding on line quality, etc) when they have to do it all over again in a matter of months? Even if it is a software thing, it is a pain and costs money. PRB