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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mopgcw who wrote (52441)	9/26/2013 9:32:42 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78702

Hi mopgcw - You raise a lot of valid points. First for me, I keep the position small and let my story/theme develop, then I add shares over time so I achieve a smooth average price. I have never been able to time the market to get the absolute lows but I do like to buy when in "value" territory hopefully locking in my selected value price. I went back and looked at the company Calumet and their products to confirm for me that their story is still in place. Specifically I am looking at their product growth potential and can they maintain high unit margins. CLMT has a well diversified product line across many different consumer "branded" products. They have a division called Penreco that produces pure white mineral oil used in health and personal care products. CLMT has exposure to asphalts but their other divisions should absorb any downturn in that division IMO. I have not looked at WPT as it sounds like it has too much exposure just to storage w/ limited growth potential. I noticed another name in NG storage Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC that I had not heard of. Again their future expansion projects are minimal (therefore limited growth in distributions) but both value and distribution yields are nice. For any long term hold, I want storage assets to be a part of the overall package but look for pipelines/transportation, some processing and other value added services. NS/NSH has a few different revenue streams but may be a bit heavy in the oil storage area. Therefore, distribution cuts are bigger and more painful if any one revenue stream is impacted by rising prices, competition, unexpected events (storms/weather, fire) or long term economic slowdown. Also, usually if/when a distribution cut is announced (and management is pro-active), future cuts are minimal unless it's a long extended economic slow down. My long-term value proposition and theme is that NG supplies are/will grow significantly and companies that transport, store, process and use this commodity as feedstock to produce things (like fertilizer, consumer products, LNG exports) will benefit and grow their different revenue streams. There probably is no one investment that will work but you should be able to find a few companies that together will outperform. Keep posting other ideas and company names that might work w/ this theme. There are lots of undiscovered "potential value plays" still available. The next big disruptive change will be when the huge large caps get involved and start acquiring several of these small players looking to vertically integrate many of these separate operations. EKS

To: mopgcw who wrote (52441)	9/29/2013 4:20:16 PM
From: Jim P.	Respond to of 78702

I think the time to buy is when crack spreads are brutal. CLMT is one I do not own but it is getting very attractive. The $400 million or so growth projects, one mentioned here, the small refinery for diesel, all with very high EBITDA paybacks. I recently started a small position in the single refiner ALDW. Straight refining margins play on that one whereas CLMT has a very nice growth profile in the specialty refined products. I think CLMT is a long term buy here and ALDW is simply undervalued. If anyone decides to look at ALDW this MLP has no IDR's and public unit holders only own 18% of the refinery. Parent owns the rest. Seeking alpha article explains a lot. seekingalpha.com jim