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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (10558)	12/9/1997 6:03:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

I, for one, am quite bearish on the stock market long term (i.e. 2-4 years), and since I doubt I can time the market, that means I have to wait until valuations return to normality by their traditional route. Right now the economic situation looks amazingly dark. Over the very long run, (i.e. 10 to 20 years) I think that the futures so bright I got to wear shades! I don't think we'll have any major (i.e. millions of deaths) environmental problems. I'm also not worried about running out of fuels and stuff. They'll get replaced, I expect. We have incredible things left to discover on this planet, and those will allow the higher population densities to live in standards of living currently beyond our comprehension. It is only very rarely that the Western world gets stock prices at such high multiples to book, and it is a sign of severe speculation in stocks, just as Greenspan implies. These things do not always end in debacles, but they sure have in the past. The basic problem with humans (and animals) is that if a behaviour results in pleasure (like getting profits for free), they repeat the behaviour. This eventually makes people act like lemmings while chasing stock prices too high. But I like humans anyway. And chickens too. I think humans are too hard on human nature. They're a lot nicer than they think... -- Carl