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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (10561)	12/9/1997 7:42:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

I saw people getting into the 1969 market who had been too cautious to do so since the 1930s and 1940s. Also, lots of people were staying in because they had done so well up to that point. After the double bear market that finally ended in late 1974, plus the incredible interest rates available in the early 1980s, it took eight years for a new generation of investors to move in with confidence. My own worst misjudgment, though, was to look at accelerating monetary growth in the later 1980s and believe that a huge second round of inflation was coming that would send oil and gold way up again. Various things kept this expectation going--the Gulf War, for example. Fortunately I did not borrow on the house or credit cards, but the ownership of one long-term futures contract in silver proved terribly expensive. It's very hard not to be conditioned by experience--after all, in most situations in life those who learn from experience do not repeat their errors. It looks as if those in the stock market now are "learning" from the past two decades that one always gets rich that way. No doubt I am doing a number of things wrong right now as a consequence of experience and faulty judment, but open discussion such as exists on this thread is at least a chance to arrive at a modicum of clear thinking.