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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nemer who wrote (15367)	12/10/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Is ASEAN crisis looming again? ASIA heavily down as I write Nekkei to Malayasians stocks are under severe pressure HSI back on 10400 and Nekkei on 16280- why this second round of sell off- I think it is a phase of consolidation and profit taking which is well extended and will be looking to test the supports on all the major indexes- I will be very cautious and will need to change my levels on S&P below 962 if Nekkei cuts thru 16000 although I doubt it such a test should hold for test of levels or supports to come true. Bonds are well bid once again I will looking at very interesting configuration on bonds present levels of uncertainity is prelude to a slight tech correction but in intermidiate plan of configuration I will be looking at shorting in this coming quarter expecting bonds to trade between 117,14 even 116,29 would be tested in this coming quarter before we see them heading back up again- this month should have been a relatively quite month but unfortunately 'questions of integrity of corporate' sector does not seem to leave the market. Markets are perfectly performing within a trend forming historical pattern- I see no market heading higher- I was watching with slight amusement the pattern of SOX breaking thru 280, it tested 280,7 came back up to 284 could not hold on the way down at around 280 I shorted 300 calls and 310 calls purchasing 270 puts a very aggressive strategy but I thought with INTC and TXN and IBM going thru my support levels it was prident to buy Jan puts and sell calls ofcourse I left the puts intact but covered the naked calls at far lower levels I wished I copuld have done the same with the puts as SOX did rebound but anyway we need to see today if SOX break of 280 is genuine- my levels are 265 and 255, will SOX hold these levels- I will certainly be looking to go long at 265with tight stop loss at a break of 262- for me the more people are negative the self triggering mechanics of valuation in the market will overshoot on side of pessimists but only to reverse with equal ferocity, I have seen it time and time again and will not be intimidated by actions of this market.SOX for me is a proxy for Tech sector I don't have any other better more liquid proxy it acts in tandem rather more bearishly then overall Tech market but other indexes like MS are less liquid and difficult to trade.A single close below 285 is still not confimatory evidence of SOX test of 265 and 255- generally if support levels has been breached so closely the test of lows is a good possiblity. The more I see these negative sentiments like ORCL and ALTR I have again noticed the wiping out of 2 bn from CEO of ORCL bodes well for the overall strength of the market. These kind of markets are indicating 'we take no prisoners'- base formed on 'tragedies' like this my experience tells is a base which takes you far and ahead until fundamentally 'world macro economic' situation' changes- this should include for me coming out of strong numbers not weak and if former happens which should be signalled by Bond rally above 120 and staying above there I will short the market huge- as far as numbers are strong I am relaxed. Ofcourse one needs to be aware of a false bond rally on grounds of 'flight to quality' again that is a distinction without which you are bound to be whipsawed. Genral problem is that 'traders' do get whipsawed even a short trade is possible with fairly good chances of success if your fundamental view of the market is correct and you know your big picture. Those who question my strategy should realise that if I start redsesigning my strategy and redefine it - it has been the same since this leg started from 770 back in April- the input is the same Japan sell off was a consistent feature from 22000 to 17000- ASEAN unsustainable neck break speed formed the background of this move up based on which the market is at 8000. Similar arguments can be seen forwarded by very same people with equal authority- go back to various threads back in April and may of 97 see what has been written- fundamentally something was a miss there- the start of this thread is based on longing CSCO at 50 some other threads were predicting shorting and others again end of the world- we have several ways to evaluate my evaluation saved me and brought me to here- to be on the right side of market is what matters. If model is a suspect unfortunatly I have to live with it- it has helped me so far and it will I am sure in future- it gives me levels and supports and resistance quite clearly and I trade within those parameters- if I change the goal post now I should not have been a part of the market at 8000- as I say only SI forums provide opportunity to run the market from 850 to 987 during last few weeks on the wrong side of market. In actual conditions one would be bankrupt- directions help you to re-coup losses made on trades like INTC and TXN- if your directional trade is right and even if your stocks are suffering based on directional trade your cost basis keeps lowering down. Next round of bear ascendancy is up- levels are clear on S&P 962-5 area should hold but a failure of Nekkei at 16000 will break this support so will SOX 265- bottom I am banking on my earlier post that 950 levels should hold if Nekkei fall does not stop- In reality- Nekkei will hold at 16000 and will test 16800 trend line break soon. SPZ will remain solid at 962- 65 , test of 972 is on cards today but I rtemain biased that this should hold. SOX SPZ next supports are sensitive to preannouncements- I expected last night at around SOX 273 that sell programmes should kick in as I match my bellwethers supports with some features of sell programmes- that did not materialise and was rather interesting development for me. A 10% drop in SOX is not accompanied by broad market weakness this sectrol divergence is unsustainable- one of the two wil give up ofcourse I am betting on SOX coming up. SPZ resistance was great but will 972 hold today- I think it should otherwise 962 is the next support. This is a typical pattern of market however as someone put it very correctly a major announcement from INTC or DELL or MSFT or IBM can take this market thru our levels- these are dynamic situations and flexible response is integral part. Thanks- I will be in Mountains for weekend - I hope to write something tomorrow.