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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (52453)	10/2/2013 3:44:33 PM
From: MCsweet	Respond to of 78740

PCLB seemed the most solid of the bunch. The CEO is always cautious in his earnings announcements. I spoke with him on the phone and he maintained his conservative/pessimistic stance. Seems like a good long-term stock to hold, but not expecting any earth shattering results anytime soon. BCBP took a write down last year on bad loans they dumped to a third party, telling me that they were under-reserved. The CEO says they acquired the loans in a recent acquisition of a trouble bank, implying that it won't be an ongoing thing. Even if this is the case, it does imply that at best they did not market the loans properly on acquisition. I will probably call him back at some point and push him on this. Despite that negative, (i) they still have a decent history of growing book value and (ii) earnings have been improving and earnings from the 2nd half likely will at least match the 1st half, so I am guesstimating earnings of 1.12+ this year (Forward PE of 9.7) with 4.4% yield, slightly above tangible book, and an aggressive buyback (plus a bit of insider buying). Once the full year hits, I am guessing this will show up on somebody's value screen at some point, with the buyback there to support the stock. MC