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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)	10/14/2013 9:49:51 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

AHONY: I've held it on my watch list since you mentioned it is or was your wife's shopping preference. Sorry I didn't act. Maybe on your wife's next stock or business suggestion...

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)	10/16/2013 3:27:23 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78625

YARIY. I continue to add shares to my losing position as stock drops. Relatively low p/e, relatively high roe, annual increases in stated book value. Negative might be competition from Chinese urea exports. finance.yahoo.com

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)	11/6/2013 11:25:43 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

Tire stocks seem to have done well over the past 18 months. I sold MGDDY early; every time I reviewed it since, it or Goodyear, they've not seemed in bargain territory. Decided now I'll take a chance on Bridgestone, although that one's no bargain either in my view. Still, there may still be growth in the sector (the business) and in the stocks. I'll go with a few shares of BRDCY on the premise it might be a beneficiary of Japan's lower yen for exports (including perhaps exports of machinery to fill Bridgestone's plants that are outside of Japan). Bridgestone stock seems in line with competitor stocks; Bridgestone may or may not eventually have a benefit in being the world's largest tire manufacturer (largest, according to the company). finance.yahoo.com

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)	11/8/2013 12:53:52 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	2 Recommendations Recommended By MCsweet Spekulatius Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78625

My top (>2.5%) positions in no particular order: GLW, MGDDY, JPM, MSFT, DRAGF, CF. In: CF - bought more. Out: CYOU - price drop, position reduced Fixed income: ~16% Cash: ~18% New positions: COST, BAMXY, CFX, TDY Positions increased: JPM, CF, MKL Positions reduced: CYOU, TPCA, MOS Positions eliminated: Flip-flop: Somewhat uneventful earnings season and less-than-a-month. Most of my portfolio companies reported so so results or predicted worsening results in the future. Some were punished, but overall portfolio continues to trade pretty high. Market is assuming continued growth or at least outperformance in stocks. I continue to wonder if we gonna get blindsided when this belief changes. I bought a bunch of expensive Buffettology not very value investing stocks. Initial, small positions in COST, CFX, TDY. CFX and TDY based on Brooklyn Investor blog. None of them are cheap. I bought some BAMXY, which reported rather crappy results. Not very cheap. Added to JPM, CF and MKL. Not very cheap either. JPM continues to languish in lawsuit and govt penalty mire. CF results are not great. MKL is OK, but nothing special. CYOU expects a huge earnings drop due to marketing and game licensing expenditures. The biggest worry is that this is the way to transfer cash out to SOHU. Second biggest worry is that they don't know what they are doing and they gonna piss away the cash. I sold some and may sell more if stock holds or runs up. TPCA - sold some on runup. Stock still trades below book. Results are so so, but a bit improving. MOS - results are quite bad. The company is not cheap based on the current results, though these might be going to cyclical trough. So I might be selling at bad time and get whipsawed. Overall, there's not much available to buy. Quite a few positions could be sold, but I don't have great ideas where to redeploy the money, so I continue to hold.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)	11/12/2013 1:04:06 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78625

UVIC is a position that has not worked very well for me. I held it for long time and sold a bunch this year as the business seemed to be deteriorating. Now the stock is at highs and I am not benefiting much. They are promising positive growth next year, but I am not certain that they can deliver. In short: another example where large position did not work well for me. I don't particularly like to post about microcaps, but I decided to update the info about UVIC. I think there might be only 1 or 2 people interested. So the story was that UVIC seemed like a good company couple years ago. They had a bunch of royalty payments. They bought out large shareholder which pushed their debt up and the equity to negative. Still it seemed like the business was worth investing in. I bought a bunch and had a large position. There was also a hedge fund guy who bought a bunch and got on the board. Fast forward to this year. The royalty stream is dropping. They invested a bunch of money into new equipment for new products. It does not seem to have produced a big bump in sales. There was some increase, but it did not offset the royalty drop. So I sold a bunch early this year. The stock has run up since then. Two individual investors acquired large stakes. On the other hand, the hedge fund who got in couple years ago was just bought out by the company. I am not sure where they got the money - perhaps they took more debt. So overall, the results are going down, the stock is going up. I sold even more as the stock was going up. I hold very small position now. I guess if one believes the management that the next year's results will improve, then the stock might still be a hold. Anyway, it's a bit of a rambling post. I am looking for any insight of what I missed, am missing or whatever. :)