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To: Shane M who wrote (52553)10/21/2013 3:18:34 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78774
 
I guess basically on some calls I get the feeling I trust the mgmt, and on other calls something just doesn't feel right.

I find reading Seeking Alpha transcripts of calls is more valuable than listening to them. You read exactly what was said, and the presentation style isn't important. I used to often see management presentations at stock conferences and such things, but what I learnt is that a slick presentation from a confident manager can give you a good feeling which isn't justified. In other words, if the presenter is a good salesperson, I would probably like the stock more than I should.

I prefer to take the need to judge management's character our of the investment decision as much as possible - I'm no super duper judge of characters and fraudsters, so why would I think I can tell who's sincere and who's a big fat liar?



To: Shane M who wrote (52553)10/21/2013 8:30:06 AM
From: Dale Baker  Respond to of 78774
 
Some simple rules....listen to what management is most confident about and doublecheck if the facts back that up.....find out what the company's biggest weaknesses are and see if management address them candidly either in their own presentation (extra credit for that) or when the analysts raise them in Q&A....

I agree that your time is better spent reading transcripts than listening. You can skim a CC in 10-15 miinutes while listening can take an hour in some cases.



To: Shane M who wrote (52553)10/21/2013 12:36:07 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78774
 
I agree with Elroy about listening to conference calls (I also prefer transcripts), and the difficulty, if not impossibility, of judging management's competence, veracity or character from them.

It's my belief that oftentimes I get more insight as to what management believes by following their insider buying and selling, rather than just by what they are saying.



To: Shane M who wrote (52553)10/21/2013 3:55:15 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78774
 
I don't listen to the conference calls and I read the transcripts very infrequently. I usually go with outside opinions about management. If Buffett trusts them, I trust them too. :)

Overall, I am very cynical and I believe that pretty much everybody is selling their own book. Even Buffett with his folksy style is selling his stuff: we have covered multiple cases on this thread where it was "watch what I do, not what I say" with him. In fact, the best leaders like Jobs probably tend to oversell. So IMHO the fact that management glosses over problems does not mean that they are bad or incompetent. It's usually natural state of their existence.

On the other hand, I have not seen that many successful managers/leaders who are humble and open. Buffett might come closest, but even he's no saint. And he does not have to sell (as much), since he controls BRK and he does not need to care about fund managers or analysts or activist shareholders punching him in the face if he openly talks about problems.

I agree with what others said. If you can discern when management are openly lying or overselling even more than it is expected, then it's worth listening to the calls. Otherwise, read the transcripts or just read the financial statements.

So far I don't think I made a single great investment choice based on me discerning something about management directly from their presentations. There are very successful manager-leaders who I hate and very successful manager-leaders who I like. But choosing based on that would have been (and perhaps was if I ever did it) a losing proposition. I never liked Jobs, for example, and I don't particularly like the Google triumvirate.

I am not sure it's useful to talk in abstract and would prefer if you (and others) gave concrete examples. But I also still remember that you don't like to talk about concrete companies, since then we get into the "I have to justify my stock position" mentality. So I won't insist. ;)