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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quote 007 who wrote (299)	10/22/2013 10:05:28 AM
From: Fintas	2 Recommendations Recommended By Fiscally Conservative toccodolce Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15903

We are doing different things. I own JPM off lows. I still own them. I will not sell until upside targets are hit. Here and now that's in the 80 area. I took some to trade in the 28 area I kicked them out in the mid 40's. I've been writing covered calls against the core and I'm waiting for a 38-42 to buy calls I. Thus the I'm a perma bull statements. Yet I can see JPM selling off. I can see BAC selling off. Why? The sector is too far right. If you had or have the profile to play calls/leaps you would have done better on that move up. So would have I. I.25 to 18. That took a hand ful of months.. Re: " I'm not as smart as you I guess because I can't predict-I didn't know that the down in nov and than again in june was going to stop where it did" This has not a thing to do with who is smarter than whom. It has to do with different views and strategies. Your trading JPM. GOOD. You did well. GOOD. I am long JPM. I've done well. I've traded JPM. I have done well. As for your indicator as to when to get out of the market. I have NO intention of getting out of the market. I do intend on exploiting it where applicable. I was taking those core back in late 2009. To do that one had to anticipate the turn and understand the movement re strings. I do intend on playing the RETRACE. Meaning I will probably take calls in BAC if the numbers work. Ditto JPM. I do have covered calls written on BAC into 2014. Why? I expect BAC to roll over. That will allow me to buy calls off the selling. That will allow me to continue with my spx/spy put strategy. That one day will turn back to a call strategy as the move to 1944/2430 would take place. However, here and now I lean down. As you point out since 2009 the pattern has been in x's. Those two brief periods you suggest ..Well I'm not sure I'd agree with the brief. But there were moves from the 1074 to the 1324 a few times before taking out ol 1458. During those times there were some hefty declines in certain equities. Yet the TREND was clearly up from 667. And the trend will continue UP after the retrace is done. Apparently you don't see the retrace to the 1400's.. We disagree. Come 2014 we will see. I recently put up the 108. Since you are a pnfer. You can see where it ends and where the next box would be. As you look at that pattern a simple what makes one thing 108 is going to put up another x or two.from 1756. And if it did what would a 3 point value box down require. I realize you use the 1 point but IMO that box is too small when considering a longer view up or down. If you don't want to use the 108 then use the 54. But as you do consider that 108. Consider the 97.2 or ignore them. Yet to get to that 1944 requires a 486 off that 1458. I don't see enough room in the many indicators I monitor to allow for that. Esecially when I consider FA and the fact the move from last NOV was more about outside actions then FA. Had they not extended the debt ceiling, provided relief re cap gains for many re % and started QE 3 ms market was probably going lower than I though. Those in place understood that, couldn't let it happen, it didn't and here we are watching others still trying to prop things up. Unfortunately that will end and when it does down we go. But NOT to the areas they were concerned. i.e 972 or lower. But a nice healthy retrace. What is a retrace off 1074/1134/1266? Heck we were at 1345 ish last year and 1405 in Jan 2013. The fact is if things were great they would not be spending 85 b. And the fact is that spending will stop. As it does my work supports the 3 box retrace on the 108. And whether I use that number or combinations of 486. 1400's are coming and for that to occur bell curve will roll and for that to occur many sectors will roll. I suggested 9.72 for the spy. It's a derivative of 972. Or 3x972=2916 and upside target I have for the spx IN TIME. Yet if you cut taht 972 to get to the 9.72 you should see where spx can do and where it will drop on the retace. For those who are saying HUH. SPX 1450 ish. And again in 2014. Those that disagree..That's ok. Most didn't agree with me long ago on the way to 1620. Fintas Ok we yakked this one to death. You asked re the 108. I explained it. .