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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (52581)	10/22/2013 7:15:40 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

Yes DE is on my AG watch list and getting close to getting into my Buy range. I still do not want to reach for the buy so maybe I have to look at it again and see if I can justify a buy at current levels. I monitor the SI farming thread and DE equipment is the Farmer's machine of choice. In Europe pretty much the same thing. Yara International ASA (YARIY)shows off their new electronic fertilizer application equipment using Deere tractors. Deere is a positive brand name that has value so at 10x forward earnings it is really not expensive. The only thing being so large is they carry a lot of debt 33.9Bln according to Yahoo. So my net income to debt measure shows 9.65x (LT Debt to annual net income) which is a bit high, over the 4x's that Buffet likes. Also, the world's economies are not over their strained credit "freeze" but this is the type of equipment that would be bought first in any recovery cycle. So where is the value proposition? Are there hidden value nuggets yet to be realized by the market or huge potential future growth prospects and/or is it an under priced enterprise? The dividend is 2.5% so what can one expect for annual price appreciation? 4%,6% or even 10% Maybe it continues at the low end but maybe if/when the economies start to pick-up this is where you want to invest some money. I guess my expectations are 6.5% annual return the first year and up to 10% in two years. So for me, my buy proposition is to try to start a position a bit lower on any market sell off. DE has a bit more risk with their foreign country exposure. Many of my previous buys are in U.S. only companies searching for value in the oil shale patch (I see steady growth there). This looks like a 12-36 month hold that provides good diversification for the portfolio. I continue to pass for now but it is one of several companies that top my buy candidate list. FWIW, I like DE much better than KO simply because it is healthier than all those sugar drinks. EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (52581)	10/23/2013 12:51:28 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78751

DE - too expensive for me. But then that's my opinion about most of the stocks right now.