To: Alan Aronoff who wrote (400 ) 12/9/1997 3:57:00 PM From: Craig Kaltner Respond to of 802
Here's an article from the begining of the year. He was right on the money. A Host of Bold Predictions for a New Year in the Networking Arena By R. Lynn Nye Jr. First, a quick thanks to CommunicationsWeek for asking me back for another year. To some of you this may be a real disappointment, but maybe I can win you over this year with elements that will prove to be worth watching in the months ahead. One of the sleepers in '96 that will be on the lips of many in '97 will be circuit management. Today, these products are only available from Visual Networks and Sync Research Inc. With the acquisition of TyLink Corp., I think we'll see Visual take a clear and strong lead in establishing more relationships with the major carriers and in just sheer execution. Since circuit management functionality is currently delivered within the DSU/CSU, ADC Kentrox, Adtran Inc. and Digital Link Corp. finally will wake up and wonder, "What happened?" When will vendors learn to keep their eyes open within the market that has made them successful? For a couple of longtime players in the industry, '97 is make-or-break time. Attachmate Corp., one of the strongest players in the enterprise (as a private company), has to regain some confidence, both internally and externally, to make it. FastComm Communications Corp. is going to have to stop waving its arms and actually deliver on some of its promises. I don't know if I have ever seen so many relationships won and lost by one company. And I will eat the paper this magazine is printed on if FastComm achieves its projection of some $70 million worth of sales as a result of its relationship with Alcatel Data Networks. For about two years now I have been warning vendors and users about the over-confidence of the carriers. In '97 we will start to see more of that reality. (Living in U S West territory gives me even more reason to start off with a statement like that.) Now, don't get me wrong here. There are some very strong individuals working within many disciplines at carrier companies, but assuming that some of that expertise is going to spread via osmosis throughout the organization is fantasy. A good case in point concerns managed SNA services, which have been announced as both an on-site and central-office service. While on paper and from an objective perspective this is an admirable goal, it is out of the realm of reality. What many carriers lack fundamentally is the appreciation for just how tightly coupled an SNA/SDLC network is to the system and therefore you can't establish a demarcation at the link layer and call it quits. There is little to no tolerance for anything less than the highest levels of reliability and support. And for now, simply provisioning and supporting frame relay networks is keeping them more than busy. R. Lynn Nye Jr. is a consultant based in Portland, Ore. His background includes network planning and design, as well as product management and marketing. The opinions expressed are his own. He can be reached at 71334.1270@compuserve.com.