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Strategies & Market Trends : Candlestick Charting--The unknown indicator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Esteban who wrote (922)12/9/1997 7:35:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1589
 
Esteban; RE:" SPY "

90 min chart shows a very strong white bodied hammer for the
close today.


Esteban, are we using the same chart generator ?

quote.com

...it shows SPY,90 as a Doji for the last candlestick.

last night's closing bullish engulfing pattern was the first false
signal I've gotten from 90 min SPY patterns in like, 3 weeks.


That's true, Esteban - but the SP7Z futures clearly drive the Morning Attacks. ORCL's gap-down open today just collapsed the CWX.X CBOE Computer Software Index. The bondz, too (TYX.X) are starting to sell off (for the first time in 3 weeks).

...the daily trend line from 10/28 was broken today (barely) so
support should be right here.


The UpTrend break is easier to see in XMI.X,90 Esteban, (as are the horizontal support levels, IMHO). I agree and disagree with the idea that support should be right here. I've already posted my take on the support levels, and yep - they are essentially right here. But the violation of the UpTrend changes my reading of what we should do.

One scenario is that the trend is changing. We expect any bounce up from here to be a kind of technical correction, (or "Bull Trap"), and that we should go short on any strength now, rather than go long on any weakness.

Another scenario is that new highs have just been achieved, and - especially evident on the XMI.X,D Major Market Index chart - we are simply re-tracing and fiddling around here before going on up to un-charted territory. Donald Sew made a very good point the other day when he said that "new highs" render much T/A helpless, as there is no way to know what resistance and support levels await us. Candlesticks would be more important then, because we would have no horizontal levels, only trend lines, to guide us from this point on.

What I'm doing now is looking closely at the index components, Esteban; especially the heavily weighted ones on the OEX-100. FYI...


6.87 = GE
4.89 = XON
4.89 = MSFT
4.66 = KO
4.65 = INTC
3.72 = MRK
3.21 = IBM
2.56 = WMT
2.54 = BMY
2.36 = JNJ
2.23 = AIG
2.23 = HWP
2.22 = T
2.15 = DD
1.99 = PEP


-Steve

P.S.

BTW, did you short LIT ?


...my 76-year old dad went long LIT @ 49-1/2 a few days ago; told him to take profits now and re-enter later, but he's even more stubborn than I am ;-)