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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Aegis who wrote (1812)	12/9/1997 6:02:00 PM
From: Zach E.	Respond to of 3696

David, Thanks a lot for the information. How much does an Ultrabeam or P-GILD go for, anyway? Also, does anyone know how UTEK's recent revenues break down with respect to disk equipment (front end/ back end), micromachining and semiconductor equipment? I realize that UTEK is a company with long-term prospects, but it has definitely been a roller-coaster from $21 to $34 back to $24, all since the end of June.. Zach

To: David Aegis who wrote (1812)	12/9/1997 8:37:00 PM
From: still learning	Respond to of 3696

Sorry for my ignorance, but could you explain the diff between fron end and bakc-end disk production. Is the front-end the thin-film head equipment?

To: David Aegis who wrote (1812)	12/9/1997 9:21:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3696

All: My research today based on conversations with UTEK revealed the following information regarding Art Z's statements: Basically, Art Z comments were taken out of context as I suspected. Gotta love the media. He made a statement and only a small portion wound up being published. Bottom line: potential (not certain) short term problem (6 - 12 months) with no long term consequences as business is sound. 1. Art Z learned at SEMICON Japan that DRAM overcapacity is still present and will be so for at least six months out given current visibility. UTEK's mix and match products are DRAM driven to an extent and Art Z sees a potential slowdown in orders for these products. Key: UTEK does not see a slowdown now in house but is "concerned" that DRAM overcapacity could slow down demand for certain mix and match products. UTEK 1998 "business plan" assumed a pick up in mix and match orders in Q1 or Q2 1998 and that revenue may not be there. UTEK is, however, seeing a pick up in higher end mix and match quotations . Key: watch Micron, TI and Motorola. If you get announcements from them re DRAM oversupply, mix and match revenue goes down three months from that point. Next few weeks are important. 2. ASMLF, Nikon and Canon are having problems with their deep UV orders. Customers cannot make a smooth transition from 16 mb to 64 mb. Tools have no problems but the process problem is there. Not enough experienced process engineers. Push-outs are the word from lithography companies. Art figures that somewhere down the lithography food chain, this may affect UTEK mix and match revenues. Not seen yet at UTEK. But potential is real in Art's view. Again, he is "concerned." 3. UTEK has strong backlog for this quarter and next. After that, visibility is limited at this point. No big deal. AMAT only has six month visibility now as well. 4. UTEK starting to see weakness in TFH, more so in front end products than in back end. This is real softness at UTEK and not theoretical. 5. Art's statement had nothing to do with P-Gild or Ultrabeam. P-Gild and Ultrabeam are on schedule to do 6-8 units (goal) each in 1998. Fact: they have over eight orders for Ultrabeam at this time. Be aware: no Ultrabeams to be shipped in Q2 1998 until all bugs are worked out in the two units at customer sites (see my previous post). Fiction: 1999 is not a done deal for these products at least until ground is broken for the new facility. Decision to be made in first quarter 1998 and is subject to "market conditions." They want to be certain their orders are firm before going forward. They want to have total confidence. Liklihood (my interpretation): facility to go forward as they are leading edge products that save money and demand seems to be there. Key: without new facility, they probably cannot build any more product than what they did in 1998 for 1999 (my interpretation). In 1998 (also my interpretation), they cannot fly anymore out the door than 8 each as they are capacity constrained by lack of facility. Moreover, they do not have the qualified personnel at this time to build more. Remember: it takes six to eight months to build these machines and you cannot recognize revenue without least a delivery. 6. Fact: If the semiconductor capital equipment maker market declines any further, Art Z will be sharpening his pencil to make acquisitions. The cash is there. He is looking to buy TFH and/or lithography companies. 7. Watch the backlog report in next conference call. Should give breakdown between new tools (Ultrabeam and P-Gild) and the rest. Glimpse of these new product orders twelve months out may be seen then. If I did not have so many shares of UTEK, I would be investing more money in this company at the current price. Hope this helps everyone.