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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (12829)	12/9/1997 6:54:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Howard, As I posted right after orcl's release yesterday, their problems are not related to asia. They are full of it and got killed for flinging bs. The semi equips are hugely exposed to asia, don't kid yourself. The question, in my mind, worth asking is : should amat, nvls, klac be cut in half due to this crisis? Are pe's of 16, 12, 18 appropriate? Assume that 1/2 amat's orders are from asia. I've heard 30-45% frequently. If asia reduces orders by 40%, total orders will be down 20%. Meanwhile, the stock is already cut in half. But the huge order cancelations have not happened. If orders drop for one year, so what! There will be more later. Meanwhile a small fortune can be made bouncing between 32.5 and 34+. But don't use your savings with this type of gambling> Gene

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (12829)	12/10/1997 9:39:00 AM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The asia situation will NOT affect amat or any semi equip directly in the medium term; it could in the short term by order push-outs or cancellations. Medium and long term, you have to look at the equipment market in only one fashion- worldwide demand for chips. This drives the capacity requirements- if asian companies don't build to meet the demand, somebody else will- demand will always be filled. Plus, in todays environment, with such a rapid transition to smaller feature size design rules and new applications, total demand for new equipment comes pure capacity needs as well as replacement capacity of obsolete installed base. The uncertainty of effect on worldwide demand is the crucial element to be addressed, especially as increasing demand is vital to offset finally the overcapacity, or stated differently too many competitors, in DRAMS and certain other commidty chips.