To: koan who wrote (751915 ) 11/10/2013 4:02:33 AM From: Bilow 3 RecommendationsRecommended By Jorj X Mckie TideGlider TimF
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1576615 Hi koan; Re: "First big problem with global warming will be the flooding around the sea shore. "; This is a retreat from previous claims that the problem with global warming would be problems with the food supply. You're pushing it because the previous claims fell apart. In fact, the world food supply continues to grow in contradiction to the predictions of the global warming alarmists who threatened us with doom 20 years ago. So let's take a look at what real scientists say about sea level rise. The US uses satellites to estimate sea level. NASA pays the University of Colorado's "Sea Level Research Group" to analyze the satellite data. Here's their website: sealevel.colorado.edu Let's go take a look at some of the articles we find there... Under "Our Publications" we see this gem: Is There a 60-year Oscillation in Global Mean Sea Level? Chambers, Merrifield and Nerem Geophysical Research Letters 39, 18 (2012)sealevel.colorado.edu Reading the article, we find:It is important to point out that even if a 60-year oscillation is occurring in GMSL, it is still a small fluctuation about a highly significant rate of rise. Modeling a 60-year oscillation does not change the estimated trend in any reconstruction time-series of GMSL by more than 0.1 mm /yr (Table 1), which is lower than the uncertainty. Thus, it does not change the overall conclusion that sea level has been rising on average by 1.7 mm /yr over the last 110 years. The 60-year oscillation will, however, change our interpretation of the trends when estimated over periods less than 1-cycle of the oscillation. Although several studies have suggested the recent change in trends of global [e.g., Merrifield et al., 2009] or regional [e.g.,Sallenger et al.,2012] sea level rise reflects an acceleration, this must be re-examined in light of a possible 60-year fluctuation. While technically correct that the sea level is accelerating in the sense that recent rates are higher than the long-term rate, there have been previous periods were the rate was decelerating, and the rates along the Northeast U.S. coast have what appears to be a 60-year period [Sallenger et al. , 2012, Figure 4], which is consistent with our observations of sea level variability at New York City and Baltimore. Until we understand whether the multi decadal variations in sea level reflect distinct inflexion points or a 60-year oscillation and whether there is a GMSL signature, one should be cautious about computations of acceleration in sea level records unless they are longer than two cycles of the oscillation or at least account for the possibility of a 60-year oscillation in their model. This especially applies to interpretation of acceleration in GMSL using only the 20-year record of from satellite altimetry and to evaluations of short records of mean sea level from individual gauges . ... Acknowledgements. ... This research was carried out under grants from the NASA Interdisciplinary Science and Ocean Surface Topography Programs. ...onlinelibrary.wiley.com Let me translate the above. This is official NASA sponsored research. It states that historical records show that the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) goes up and down every 60 years. The most recent rise is in phase with the expected rise from that 60 year oscillation. So we can't tell that we're seeing true acceleration (due to CO2, for example) on sea level gauges until we watch the sea level rise for "two cycles of the oscillation ". The oscillation period is 60 years. So two cycles is 120 years. So sure, you'll eventually know that the sea level rise is accelerating. The bad news is that it will require 120 years of data to be sure we're seeing an acceleration (due to CO2, for example). The good news is that we've already got 20 years of data so all you have to do is to wait until roughly 2100. -- Carl