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To: The Ox who wrote (2824)	11/20/2013 10:34:15 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 8288

The last SPY pause in Sep/Oct was for -5.2%. The low made at that time, 165.8, is the minimum line in the sand to hold onto the longer term bull that has lasted for nearly the last 5 years, IMO. A 5.2% correction from the recent high would target the 171 level on the SPY. A drop to the area of the last "major low" (165.8) would be a correction of 8.1%. Last year in 2012, we saw two 9% down moves, in May/June and Sept/Nov. This year, the May/June correction was 8.2%. During this bull run, each time we've made a new high since the low seen in Oct 2011, the subsequent corrections have failed to take out the previous "major lows". The Oct 2011 low was very significant, as it came within 6 points of the low from the summer of 2010. Also, this was the last time we corrected lower than the previous "major low" (which took out the March low off the Feb high). Most importantly, we did not fall lower than the midyear 2010 low. Any current move down that does not take out the 165.8 low should be seen as a pause within the current bull move. Were this area to be broken to the downside, it would be the first time one might question whether or not the current bull is "done". The more important line in the sand would be the June low of 155.7. Below that and I would say sayonara to our bull..... (reposted....figured I should keep this on our thread, too)