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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thean who wrote (4726)	12/10/1997 8:06:00 AM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

Thean (and all): Sector analysis from briefing.com on oilfield drillers: Comment: After racing higher for much of the year, the sector stumbled in November. The main factors behind the slide were: Easing tensions in the Middle East. OPEC's decision to increase production quotas by 10%. Declining natural gas prices due to expectations of a mild winter. Slackening demand from a slowing Asian region. Desire on the part of portfolio managers to lock in profits. November is also a weak month for the oil services and equipment sector historically, as investors grow nervous that drilling activity in the upcoming year will slow. Exacerbating this year's seasonal weakness was the sector's sterling performance year-to-date, as managers used the aforementioned developments as their cue to lock in profits (and bonuses). But given that the group's long-term fundamentals remain in place (strong worldwide demand, high utilization/day rates and increased operating efficiencies), we suspect that the investment community's fondness for the fast-growing sector will return. Even so it is unreasonable to assume that the oil services and equipment sector will match its strong performance this year in 1998, if for no other reason than expectations are higher. But the recent retreat should not be taken as a sign that the sector is ready to roll over. To the contrary, we believe that the market overreacted to a number of short-term developments as tensions in the Middle East may ease from time to time but they never seem to disappear; OPEC's increase in production quotas will not translate into glut of oil given strong demand and fact that Iran and Libya recently announced that they have already hit full capacity; the decline in natural gas and oil prices has yet to reach levels which will discourage new drilling and could prove temporary; and the demand shortfall from Asia (difficult to quantify at this time) will only be a short-term (one to two quarters) problem. As such we think the recent slide has created a good opportunity for risk-tolerant, growth oriented investors to do some bargain hunting. Briefing is reiterating its outperform rating. However, it should be noted that the higher multiples raise the level of risk associated with investing in this group. Stocks: Baker Hughes, Dresser Industries, Halliburton Co., McDermott Intl., Reading & Bates, Schlumberger, Tidewater

To: Thean who wrote (4726)	12/10/1997 8:08:00 AM
From: Lee Fredrickson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Flan: There was a time, just a month or two ago, when I felt much as you did (#4693). Seemed like endless wading thru some very arcane and obscure stuff. Still can't comprehend most of it, but that doesn't make it invalid or ineffective, just beyond my present ken. The mix here seems to ebb and flow about like the industry's stock prices. (Hmmm...some correlation there?) A number of months back this was 'fundamentals central', and they're still discussed whenever changes occur, or someone has a question. If a post is too strewn with burnt tortoise shell fragments, I just meander on to the next one. Wading thru 'Strictly...' on a busy news day gets a lot of my discretionary time already, reading two such active threads of an evening would about push me over an edge somewhere. Good Luck and Patience. Lee

To: Thean who wrote (4726)	12/10/1997 8:40:00 AM
From: mph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean: I really enjoy the posts, yours particularly, dealing with TA. I barely understand it, but am learning and find it interesting. Since the market has such a herd mentality and is so often psychologically driven, it seems to me that predicting trends through chart analysis has a lot of validity, as much as it might seem to be voodoo-based to those of a more cynical persuasion. As to the guys and gals dismayed at the level of TA talk on this thread, I can only say that that is what the "next" button is for. I use it all the time if I find a post to be useless or otherwise lacking in any reason to read it. (That happens less here than on other threads I visit). Anyway, keep up the good work. mph