To: Steve Smith who wrote (4131 ) 12/11/1997 11:10:00 AM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787
Iin this market it pays to be conservative about identifying when a trend has been established. When the Dow went up quickly above 8000, I expected some profit taking. Even though I thought investor confidence was improving, I was not ready to jump in until I saw what was going to happen when the previous high is challenged. Now the market for the 3rd time is back down below 8000 and profit taking continues! Once I get my charting software operational again, I will be able to get a better look at this situation. It is like flying half-blind not having access to a current version of the charts. IMO just from a basic observation, if the market stays below 8000, this can spell more trouble for the market. The Dow has been outpacing the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ recently has started to catch up to the Dow. Now the Dow is coming down to close the disparity between the two indices. I think this is a good example of the market not having any leadership, and specifically leadership from the tech stocks. Perhaps a new leader will need to be established? This will take time. I did have my doubts that anything would happen before the second half of January in terms of a new bull run. This may turn out to be the case yet. I did think the market would get a little higher before the end of the yet, and who knows, it may still do that. But I did not have my charts to go by to show me the "health" of the market. I have been going strictly by known key support and resistance levels, general price action of the market in the indices, and investor sentiment. Definitely nothing even close to having the complete picture. My guess is that this previous run up was induced by the traders who take short term positions in the market. This action on their part took advantage of tte foreign money moving into the blue chips and what early move of funds this encouraged that occurred from the bond market to the stock market by institutions. Also, I heard somewhere here on SI that a recent week saw something like a couple billion dollars of money inflow into the mutuals. The mutuals have to do somethng with this money, so I think when the market is seen to have stabalized, the mutual will begin to move some of that money into the market. Unlike the smaller trader, the mutual funds cannot wait for the market (key stocks for them) break out and start its run up. They have to get in before the game starts. This is because of the massive amounts of money theyhave to manage. This is also why they accumulate a stock over a period of time. So I would not be surprised if there had been some initial mutual fund participation in the market. At least for the preset time, it is a traders market. From hindsight, the market rise above 8000 may have not been due to the market blowing off the Asian crisis which would indicate sudden bouyancy in investor sentiment. It was money from foreign lands, including the Asian region, that contributed to the rise in the markets. After all, they need a place for their money that they can find comparatively safe. When the US market did not fall through the floor like their market did, they chose to move their money into our markets which had its effect on the Dow. The foreign markets may not have heard of many of the companies over here in the U.S., but they have heard of many of the our "blue chip" companies like GE, IBM, and Microsoft, most of which are part of the Dow Industrial average. I imagine that is why the market move up was lead by price increases and breakouts in some of these companies. The move up in the Dow that this focused attention on our blue chips caused was helped on by traders and what inflow of money that came from institutions. Now the traders are taking their profits. I do believe the current impact of the Asian crisis on company earnings and the market is still ill-defined other than "there will be companies that will end up getting hurt by this Asian crisis". As pointed out above, the Asian crisis ended up for the short term helping our markets. And some of the companies that have been blaming their earnings shortfall on the Asian situation is BS. Oracle may be an example of this. Any "crisis of the day" can be used by companies as their scapegoat even though there was evidence of slowing earnings way before the "crisis" came on the scene for them. When it turns into a market driven by the large, longer term institutional players, where "good money" is moving into the market, then the market will move up. But I do not see this happening without leadership from some industries like the techs. Bob Graham