SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: @EpicaCapital who wrote (6827)12/15/2013 12:26:32 AM
From: @EpicaCapital1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Statisticia

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6873
 
Weekend trading food for thought:

If I was ever to write a trading book, it would probably be at least 500 pages long and maybe much longer.
There are just so many critical topics to cover and even more secondary topics to consider.
This weekend I decided to offer very brief general thoughts on 2 particular topics: overall game plan and size.
Perhaps some of you might find some value in this drivel.

Nobody knows you as well as yourself, but it is crucial to look in the mirror and see both your strengths and weaknesses.
Once these are realized, only then can you implement a strong game plan.
Every business needs a niche and every trader need to find his to become very successful.
This niche has to be your total comfort zone, it has to be your bread and butter play/setup. It also needs to focus on your strengths while avoiding your weaknesses as a person.
It is also important to step outside of your niche and gain very valuable experience and lessons in other setups to expand the battle field and your army.
But the focus has always got to be your niche, where you generally have a very large advantage.

You also always need to think BIG if you want to become a huge success in trading.
Being satisfied with yearly gains of 50k, 100k, 200k, 300k or even 500k will only lead to a comfortable life and mostly mediocrity in your trading business and nothing more.
Your overall game plan and niche need to take this into account.
Think BIG and you will become BIG !!!

The most common mistake traders make (outside of risk management):
They get into a comfort zone of always trading the same size regardless of the situation and setup.
This keeps them from ever achieving their full potential as traders and money earners.
This small time thinking mentality will almost always lead to nothing more than mediocrity and that might be a best case scenario.

With my personal trading >>> 80% of my yearly gains occur in 15-20% of my yearly trades and the rest of the time I just keep hitting singles and patiently wait and pass time.
My niche has always been shorting small cap stocks, but at the same time I have very extensive knowledge and experience in trading anything long or short.
When a niche setup presents itself, I ATTACK !!! Especially ones where I have a very clear understanding of the financials (especially if they are ugly), news moving the stock (which is very much misunderstood) and the chart offers an excellent initial entry.
The perfect ones don’t come around that often, so I make sure to take full advantage when they do.
I have zero fear of losses, in fact my only fear in trading niche plays is not making enough gains.
Often times I simply wear out the short button, it is not uncommon for me to trade 20, 30, 50 or even over 100 times my average size on perfect niche trades.
Obviously this type of aggression is NOT suggested for the readers of this article, but the point is you need to grow a pair and step up to the plate on perfect setups/niche plays.

My niche and size strategy has always fit perfectly with my personality and background:
Gambler, risk taker, fearless, very calculated, professional poker/backgammon/hearts/gin player, very mathematical, statistics oriented, financially emotionless, accounting major, CEO, skeptic, extremely confident, very logical, detail oriented, open minded, etc.
Interestingly being a skeptic is part of being a great short trader, but yet can be a real hindrance when trading on the long side and maximizing gains on the long side.


Point is:
A long time ago I grasped and came to terms with my personality and my background and found a trading niche that fits this perfectly and it has been an enormous success for me the past 15 years.
Find yours and adapt to it and you will give yourself a great chance to succeed big in trading.



Happy Trading,
Michail






To: @EpicaCapital who wrote (6827)1/1/2014 4:44:24 PM
From: @EpicaCapital  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6873
 
Happy New Year !!!

2013 was a fabulous trading year, by far my best year ever and this is especially noteworthy considering I have had many monster years.
But all this is now in the rear view mirror and I only care about the New Year and all the new, exciting, unusual challenges/lessons it will bring.

I closed 2013 being 100% in cash not counting my large long term fixed income holdings.
I always like starting the New Year with a fresh open mind without any positions, baggage or biases.

My early 2014 thoughts:
I expect market euphoria to continue the first half of January, especially the first 7-10 days.
Historically this short period has been extremely bullish, so I will use extra caution when considering and qualifying short trade ideas and entries.
Immediately after mid-January there are alarming headwinds on the horizon.
First, market rally is already extended and likely to get more extended early January heading into earnings season.
This could set up as a “sell the news” type of earnings season.
Secondly and much more important, the debt ceiling deadline is Feb 7 and nobody is really talking or thinking about that yet but this will change after mid-January.
As we get closer to the deadline I expect market stress/anxiety to increase substantially.
All politicians are scum and none can ever be counted on for timely rational behavior and this will once again prove to be the case.

My only interest in January is strictly intraday trading, especially on the short side, as usual.
I have zero interest in starting or building positions to hold in January, unless I really love something a great deal.
Personally, I could care less which way the market trades, as I am always quick to adjust my trading accordingly regardless of direction.

Historically 70-80% of my yearly gains come from intraday shorting in the small cap market and I expect plenty of decent opportunities to arise in January.
I have stated numerous times on Twitter the fact that I never hold any shorts positions overnight in a bull market, only in a bear market.
In general, in order to hold any positions long or short I need a very crystal clear market tailwind to do so.
Strong Trend is Your Friend !!!

Food for thought and huge MYTH about shorting:
Swing/hold short positions have a high correlation to overall market direction. Obviously a weak market helps such positions while strong market hurts them.
Intraday shorting is a totally different animal !!!
IT IS ALWAYS MUCH EASIER TO SHORT INTRADAY IN A BULLISH MARKET RATHER THAN A BEARISH ONE OR NEUTRAL ONE.
During a bullish market there is underlying euphoria and traders/investors are far more likely to bid up and chase meaningless news/stories to very unreasonable levels.
It makes finding nice fade ideas and setups much easier and they occur far more frequent.
This is where I walk in the door, bring my short hammer and introduce a serious taste of reality for the insane chasers.
The key off course is to be very selective, key on stocks with terrible fundamentals and very substantial price extension, use intraday relative weakness to add shares and off course solid initial entries and patience are critical.
Trees don’t grow to the sky and how high do you think WEEDS grow? Gravity is very powerful !!!

Wishing all of you a very prosperous 2014 !!!
Michail Shadkin @EpicaCapital



To: @EpicaCapital who wrote (6827)1/17/2014 2:19:21 PM
From: @EpicaCapital  Respond to of 6873
 
Dear @crhz1978
If you going to insult someone, this is how you do it:

You snail-skulled little rabbit. Would that a hawk pick you up, drive its beak into your brain, and upon finding it rancid set you loose to fly briefly before spattering the ocean rocks with the frothy pink shame of your ignoble blood. May you choke on the queasy, convulsing nausea of your own trite, foolish beliefs.

Happy Trading
@EpicaCapital



To: @EpicaCapital who wrote (6827)1/18/2014 7:24:26 PM
From: @EpicaCapital  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6873
 
The Long Road Home !!!

This article and my history is meant to inspire, show the importance of dedication and the endless pursuit of knowledge, while never ever settling for anything less than your Dreams.
Before reading this article, for background, it might be useful to read this prior article I wrote:
Message 29282626

It was 1984, the year I graduated from college and found an accounting job at a small software company paying lousy 18k/year.
(2 years later through very unusual circumstances became CEO of this company and finally quit in 1987 to pursue my dream and happiness.)
That fall an acquaintance of mine told me about a poker game he played in and I asked him if perhaps I could play once.
He brought me to the Cavendish club, a place where people gambled (various card games, poker and other games)
Barely knowing anything about poker at the time I was eager to give it a try.
The game was full that night and I had to wait over 3 hours before finally getting a seat and joining the action.
While I waited, I went to another room and found 4 people playing backgammon for money, a game I never even heard of before.
I sat down and quietly watched for the next 3 hours trying to understand the game.
I was absolutely mesmerized by this amazing game !!!

To most people backgammon is a simple game of luck, but there is another side to this game that most people have no idea about.
It is a game of extreme skill and on a professional level every move is based on math, statistics, strategy and psychological warfare when playing for money.
I felt like a kid walking into a candy store for the first time and after that day felt it was my calling.
I went to the library the next day and took out 3 books on backgammon and read them all in extreme detail that weekend.
The following 2 weeks outside of work I spent every minute studying this game staying up till 4-5am every day.
I was completely obsessed with it.
I then returned to the Cavendish club and for the first time played with someone besides myself and ended up winning $600 that night.

I started playing 5-6 days a week and studied the game endlessly and the more I studied, the more I realized how much more I had to learn.
6 months later I went to Reno to play in my first backgammon tournament and won it, first prize being 18k which equaled my yearly salary as an accountant.
2 years later Lloyds of London recognized me as one of the 10 best players in the world after I won many tournaments in the US and in Europe.
As I mastered the game, the problem became very apparent >>> I needed a new challenge in my life.
So I turned my attention to other games >>> Hearts, Gin-Rummy, Poker and spend countless hours/weeks/months/years studying them.
I played them all for lots of money and sizable profits, but the theme was always the same:
I would dedicate myself endlessly to perfect my craft and become the best or one of the best at it.
But as soon as I mastered a new game, I would realize the need for a new challenge.
This is my life in a nutshell.

Fast forward to April 24, 1998 and it was the day I married the love of my life in Vegas (who I meet and started dating in 1982)
That day we had to move the wedding up 5 hours earlier, because the prior day while playing at the World Series of Poker I managed to make the final table that would be played on my wedding day.
I had won many poker tournaments prior to that day, but none were sweeter or self-fulfilling than that one I won on my wedding day in front of my wife.
The next day on April 25 the Vegas Journal ran a story about me that headlined “Wed and Won”.
Interestingly, that was the beginning of the end for my huge interest in poker as I said to myself “mastered another one, time to look for the next challenge”

Prior to that point in my life I had tried trading on a part time basis numerous times, but never had the time/patience/consistent success to pursue it fully.
However, it was always in the back of my mind as something I wanted to pursue and focus on at the right time.
After returning from my honeymoon, in need of a new challenge in my life, I opened a trading account with a $110k (prize for winning the poker tournament)
I took up trading as a full time occupation devoting an incredible amount of time and effort to absorb as much knowledge as possible.
I read many books on trading/fundamentals analysis/charts, reviewed all my trades daily, took notes, endlessly searched for all type of trading trends, made do/don’t lists, etc.
There was never ever any middle ground for me, it was always either full steam ahead huge success or bust.
If I pursued something, I would never ever settle for ordinary or average, instead I always had something to prove to myself and wanted to be the best or something very close to that.

In 1998 and 1999 I found lots of trading success, but really didn’t focus on monetary gains that much.
Instead, my goal every single day was to learn as much as I could and absorb as much knowledge as possible, which always pays huge dividends in the long run.
Year 2000 was my HUGE breakout year, as everything I traded seemed to turn into gold.
Individual Investor Magazine (Maria Bartiomo’s husband ran the magazine and it went bankrupt in 2002) had 5 trading contests that year and I won all of them for total prize money of $180k
That magazine named me investor of the year in both 2000 and 2001.
Ameritrade also had a trading contest that year with 47k participants and I won that bad boy and collected a $1 million prize.
Afterwards, CNBC interviewed me about winning that contest as my wife and I spent a week in NYC.

That night after the interview my wife and I were sitting at dinner basking in the glory of the moment when out of the blue she asked:
“Now that you mastered trading, what’s the next challenge?”
It was a question out of left field that I did not expect.
I paused and gave it some thought and replied:
“Trading is a whole different animal than I ever tackled before. I have only scratched the surface of knowledge so far and doubt could ever truly master it in my lifetime. I am a student for life.”
Since, not a single trading day goes by when I don’t learn something new and I make a point of doing so.
I can’t imagine a more enjoyable profession that offers so many unique and unexpected challenges every single new day.
Dream the Dream, live the Dream and never settle for anything less !!!

================================================================================

Gambling 101 and Trading !!!

Gambling, poker, backgammon and other games in my early life have really prepared me well for trading.
There is an enormous correlation between them and trading.
Discipline, money management, quick decision making, logical reasoning, patience, dealing with financial swings, mathematical and statistical precision are just some of the crossovers.
All of them are crucial, but today I want to offer some food for thought about gambling 101 and changing gears/money management.

In my 20s there was a time when I enjoyed playing Blackjack.
I learned the basic strategy and would never make a strategic mistake while playing.
The casino has roughly 5.5% advantage on perfect play. (that % might be higher depending of the rules of a particular casino)
So, if you play 1 million hands at $10 per hand your expected loss will be $550,000 or .55 cent/hand.
You can’t possibly win in the long run, but you can try to bring the house advantage lower by counting cards and possibly altering your betting structure.

The point I am leading to is betting structure/changing gears/money management.
I tried many betting structures in blackjack and one in particular seemed the most appealing to me. (off course in the long run still can’t beat the casino)
I would bet 1 unit on a hand.
If lost would bet 1 unit again and so on.
If won, would pretend I lost the previous hand and add would add 1 unit to the 2 units from prior hand and bet 3 units total.
If won again, would take 3 unit off and bet 3 units again.
Each win afterwards would increase bet by 1 or 1.5 units.
Once lost a hand, would go back to original bet of only 1 unit.

The point of this betting structure is to wager the smallest when losing and increase size when winning and riding a hot streak.
In general this concept is Gambling 101 >>> press the hot streak and run and hide during cold streak.
This concept has made me a fortune in trading.

When I am hot , seeing things crystal clearly, mentally/psychologically engaged I will have the foot firmly pressed on the accelerator by trading larger and larger size on ideal setups.
When I hit a road bump, lose my focus or mentally distracted I enter the No Wake zone, reduce my size and patiently wait out the storm.
I once had 61 straight profitable trading days and the size I was trading in the later part of that streak was simply obscene.
On the 62nd day I lost $522k, but that didn’t mean that much compared to the overall gain during the streak.
That loss was totally expected by me and was eventual considering the streak and the length of it and the size I was trading.
The next day I was back to trading standard size, while waiting for the next streak.

I am not suggesting anyone adopt my extremes.
Rather create your own betting structure that is in your comfort zone that will keep your losses small while struggling and create big/huge gains when you hit a hot streak.
Not every trade setup or every trading day is the same, so don’t treat them the same.
Learn when to attack, learn when to retreat !!!

Happy Trading
Michail


If you haven’t seen before, here are a couple other articles I have written that might be of interest:
Message 29282350
Message 29308243






To: @EpicaCapital who wrote (6827)1/20/2014 10:45:26 AM
From: @EpicaCapital  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6873
 
I hate these 3 day long weekends.
It is bad enough that the market is closed every damn Sat and Sun, but then having a 3rd day added on is simply torture, its modern day Spanish Inquisition.
That’s how much I love and enjoy trading.

Screw Martin Luther King Jr. day, and Christmas, and New Year’s day, I got your Good Friday hanging, damn Washington was a punk, got your Memorial/Independence/Labor days right HERE, Turkey day-Forget about it !!!
Open the damn market on these days and let the sick degenerates like myself have their fun. LOL
I am having action withdrawal today, I need my daily fix !!! LOL

Here is a quick story that is sure to put a smile on your face:

From my Twitter posts you have probably noticed that sarcasm runs pretty deep with me.
In fact, I would say I am probably one of the more sarcastic people you will ever come across.
My wife has this gene also, but is no match for me although she tries.

Another sickness of mine is my HUGE aversion to any kind of work/labor/physical activity.
Trading is a passion and is anything but work to me.
Anyway, in 2001 my wife desperately wanted a house and pleaded with me for months to get one.
Owning a house requires a lot of work to maintain it and I had zero interest in any of it. I mean ZERO.
Finally after promising me the moon, I agreed to my wife’s wishes.

About a month after moving in, the porch light burned out.
It required unscrewing 4 screws, changing a light bulb and putting the screws back in.
To me this is the equivalent of taking a shovel and building my own pool. LOL
Anyway, my wife kindly asked me to change the light bulb, to which I replied “sure, no problem”.
A week later another request, followed by same reply.
A month later another request with same reply.
Every 2-3-4 weeks my wife would make the request in a nice manner, but deep inside was just burning up with frustration.
Similar reply every time >>> “I will definitely get to it, I just forgot and been busy, sorry”

One year went by and the porch light is still not fixed.
My wife is simply an amazing woman in every way possible, love her to death, and she knew damn well long ago about my many sicknesses and accepted them, although she doesn’t have to like them.
Anyway, finally she reached her breaking point after a year and decided to teach me a lesson with a taste of my own medicine, sarcasm.
House next door was having some renovations done and she approached one of the painters and asked him if he could change the light bulb on our porch and she would pay him $100 for a 2 minute job.
He was shocked, thrilled, thought she was nuts and did the job right away.

So I am in my office, feet on the desk, deliberating over my next trade when she walks in with a smirk on her face and sarcastically announces:
“I just paid $100 to a handy man next door to change that light bulb, hope you are DAMN HAPPY !!!”
Without missing a beat I replied:
“What the hell took you so long ???” LOL
The look on her face was priceless as she walked out of my office mumbling to herself. LOL

A year later she couldn’t take it any longer and the house was sold, which made me sooooooo happy.
Since, we live in a penthouse condo on the inter-coastal in North Miami overlooking the ocean, where there is zero work or maintenance to be done by me or her.


I am one sick puppy !!!

Happy Trading,
Michail