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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1380)	12/10/1997 11:58:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3033

I hope you're right. The thinking is valid. However, I'm concerned that companies are so far behind in backoffice conversions that new customer interaction systems may be put on the back burner for a few years, suppressing growth. On the other hand, after watching IS trends for a long time, applications that are considered a luxury today (In 1997 its CIS and SFA) become tomorrow's mission critical application. I think companies that defer implementing the necessary infrastrucuture to take care of their customers will lose market share to those companies that create products and services that engulf the customer in every aspect of interaction. If customer care applications do change customer satisfaction and retention levels, then the erp/y2k versus CIS decision won't be an either or decision. I think we'll come to that and that VNTV will generate good solid growth over the next few years. However, the company's fundamental performance is DIFFERENT than the stock. Institutional investors which often have to track several hundred names in a portfolio have a shoot first and ask questions later mentality. You could see an ugly year next year for all of enterprise software despite good revenue and earnings growth. Although internal IS may not have the staff to deploy customer automation systems, if the company views the applications as strategic, they'll turn to outside vendors for support. If the company can keep building momentum and help mitigate the back end loading problem through some form of a virtual backlog (that we can't see or measure, just one that Kathy et al can smile about) I expect vantive will start to separate from the back in the ifrst quarter of next year. TD