More: Modem manufacturers make peace over 56K standards
02:52 p.m Dec 10, 1997 Eastern
By Michelle V. Rafter
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Modem makers gave themselves an early Christmas
present last week, tentatively ending a bitter debate over conflicting technical
standards from Rockwell International Corp. and 3Com Corp. that rankled the
industry most of the year.
Unfortunately for computer users, the truce over differing specifications for 56
kilobit per second modems comes too late for the new standard to show up in
devices on sale during the holiday shopping season.
But modem makers promised to have devices with the new standards in
stores by spring, and for people
who've already purchased a 56k modem, easy software upgrades.
A preliminary decision by the International Telecommunications Union
(http://www.itu.org) on Dec. 5 to settle two key provisions of a compromise
standard appears to have ended the debate, which saw modem sales and prices
drop during the year as consumers waited things out. The ITU, a United Nations
standards body based in Geneva, is expected to approve the provisions and related
minor issues at a January meeting before ratifying the specifications in September.
The battle began in February, when Rockwell's semiconductor systems unit in
Newport Beach, Calif., and 3Com's U.S. Robotics division, of Skokie, Ill., began
shipping new modem chip sets that delivered data up to twice as fast as common
28.8k devices. Rockwell's Web site address is rockwell.com while
3Com's is 3com.com.
But the companies designed chips to their own proprietary technical specs, and as a
result, modems using Rockwell's K56Flex brand technology couldn't connect
with devices that used U.S. Robotics' x2 chips.
The incompatibility meant people who accessed the Internet with a modem and
dial-up account had to make sure they were using the same 56k technology as their
Internet service provider or forego the faster speed. The uncertainty kept many
people out of stores, analysts and industry officials said.
''This eliminates the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) factor,'' said Kevin
Gallagher, spokesman for Ascend Communications Inc. (http://www.ascend.com).
''Now you can walk into (a store) and not have to know which is which.''
Ascend, whose remote-access hardware is found in more than three-quarters of
the country's ISPs and wide-area networks, plans to upgrade to the new standard
as soon as Rockwell makes it available, though officials couldn't say exactly when
that will be.
With the standards question settled, officials at Earthlink Networks, a Pasadena
Calif., ISP, believe the number of its 400,000 subscribers logging on at the
higher speed will jump to 50 percent in 1998, from about 10 percent today.
''A lot of people waited,'' said Steve Dougherty, Earthlink's Internet operations
director. ''There's been advice in the newsgroups from one customer to another
recommending to let the standard solidify'' before buying.
Analysts expect to see the same kind of rapid consumer acceptance of 56K
modems all over the country. VisionQuest, a Moorpark, Calif., technology
researcher, expects modem chip set sales to almost double in 1998, to
between 28 million and 30 million. By mid year, nine out of 10 modems
bundled with new PCS will be 56K, said VisionQuest analyst Ernie Raper.
Even if they don't upgrade, owners of existing 56K modems should have
no problem getting online, as makers of ISP modem equipment generally build
new devices so they're ''backward compatible,'' or able to work with
older generation equipment.
''It's a non-event,'' said V.J. Parikh, vice president and general manager of
Rockwell's personal computing division.
Though it'll be some months before new modems are available, industry
insiders already are talking about what's coming next.
Later this year, the ITU will discuss specifications for improving data
transmission speeds for 56K modems' return channel, or the channel that
moves information from an user to an ISP. Such an improvement would make
it possible for people to use the Internet for telephone calls, faxes,
videoconferencing and other high-speed applications, said
Vedat Eyuboglu, vice president of signal processing R&D at
Motorola and a participant in recent ITU proceedings.
Beyond that, cable TV operators and telephone companies are starting
to deploy cable modems, TV set-top boxes and digital subscriber line
(DSL) technologies, all of which transmit data tens or hundreds of
times faster than 56K. But because of
the expense in upgrading cable and telephone companies' networks to
accommodate those new technologies, it could be years before they're
commonplace, Eyuboglu said.
Others disagree. Recent announcements of cheaper cable modem chips and other
products show telephone companies and others ''aren't sitting on their thumbs,'' said
Barbara Ells, Internet analyst with Zona Research in Redwood City, Calif. ''They
know there have to be more robust networks. It's coming. Maybe not in 1998, but it
surely will be there in 1999.''
(Michelle V. Rafter writes about cyberspace and technology from Los Angeles.
Reach her at mvrafter@deltanet.com. Opinions expressed in this column are her
own.)
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