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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (12855)	12/10/1997 12:49:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Hell, I'm even scared. However, having said this, I also believe that WS prices into the stock most of the time worst case scenario and then some. Keep talking like this and we may suspect that you're Soros in disguise. He believes that the market is always wrong - it either prices stocks too high or too low but almost never what a stock's intrinsic value actually may be. Still some more fear to be priced into the market as well as more tax loss selling... IMO Ian.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (12855)	12/10/1997 2:08:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Brian, To answer your question, as to whether the "uncertainties" are factored into the stock price of AMAT and the other semi-mfg stocks, they are to a degree, but there is still more downward pressure to come. For a while analysts and other sages were suggesting that the events and economic issues from Pac-Rim economies were not "significant" and were attempting to downplay the issues or else, like the ostrich, were hiding their heads in the sand in an attempt to keep from seeing the seriousness of the reality of the situation. IMHO, still a better than 50-50 chance that there will be significant negative impact on American companies earnings that do large volumes of business in Pac-Rim countries. Those countries and their high tech companies will be living on starvation rations for a while as they reign in expenses in an attempt to get things under control. When you don't have money to spend on prime rib and wine, you survive by settling for peanut butter and water until your fortunes change, at least you are eating until economic times get better. The full impact of the Asian econmic conservatism and its affect on US companies has not been realized totally yet. The picture will be clearer in April, after 1st quarter results show the impact to earnings for American tech companies. In the meantime AMAT will lanquish and likely decrease, as the markets decrease in value for a couple of months. There will be spikes, but no astounding price appreciation, short term. Just my opinion, BB

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (12855)	12/10/1997 4:29:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, The silly thing about these discussions is that the bears admit they would buy around 25 or even higher.AMAT hit 30 7/8 today. My strategy is to get a better than fair price on an equity. If you try to grab a bottom, you will lose opportunity after opportunity.This is a particularly effective way to do things in a market that is going up. The disciplined bear will do very well, because he will stick to his plan of buying at 25, and then even more at progressively lower levels. But the stock has to cooperate and get there. Those waiting for lower levels will deal with several issues the long term holders will not. As the price sinks they may jump earlier than they wanted to. This " itchy finger" tendency will come back to haunt them as the price drops further and they think about selling to buy in lower.<G> It will be a blast watching the posts. If the price appreciates quickly, they will sell to book the profit, hoping to get in lower again, but then the price keeps going. Another problem is the investor who lowers his price as the price drops," it got to 25 easy, I'll wait for 20" We will see a lot of that in the next few months. For the record, I'm waiting for 150, and I may not sell then. Best of luck, gene