Charles,
You dog!! Are you following me around the Internet?? <vbg> To those who don't know Charles King... he is quite a knowledgable man who I have had the pleasure of personally meeting.
Here is the article since the link has changed. I hope that Christina doesn't mind as I retained her name in the post.
Now someone give me my "cookie" since I've realized this problem for over a month now. When I see it covered on CNN, then I begin panicking and moving the large majority of my portfolios into Y2K stocks and eventually gold options. Asia will not make the deadline for Y2K compliance. Their cultural attitudes will prevent rapid action on the issue.
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Asia may not have cash to beat year 2000
bug
Copyright c 1997 Nando.net
Copyright c 1997 Reuters
KUALA LUMPUR (December 10, 1997 09:11 a.m. EST
nando.net) - Asia's currency crisis may have pushed aside
another worry that the region will have to rush to resolve as the decade
draws to a close -- the "millennium bug" that threatens computer
systems worldwide.
"There are some parallels at the moment with the economic problems
of some countries and the Year 2000 (bug)," said David Tickner,
Digital Equipment Corp's Year 2000 program manager.
"There's every likelihood that the currency crisis will prevent budgets
being spent on 2000," he said.
Asia has been racked with a fall in the value of its currencies since the
summer, with devaluations hammering once-robust economies
throughout the region.
At least half a dozen Asian countries have seen their currencies
plummet to historic lows as financial and property crises scuttled
economic growth prospects, sending investors to the exits.
The Millennium Bug or "Y2K" problem, is a worldwide computer
programming fault that could cause computers to view the year 2000
as the year 1900, leading to systems crashes and business
upheavals.
Banks, insurance companies and other financial service companies
are thought to be especially vulnerable as they make interest
payments and other calculations based on dates.
To save space in coding, early computer programmers used just two
digits to denote years. Rectifying the mistake now involves going over
millions of lines of code.
Cost of fixing the problem
Estimates on the cost of fixing the bug vary, but a study by Killen &
Associates released in the U.S. in August said spending on systems
integration, professional services and outsourcing for solving the
problem will reach $280 billion between 1997 and 2002.
The study projected that 52 percent of the money spent would be in
North America, 28 percent in Europe, 17 percent in Asia, two percent
in South and Latin America and one percent in Africa and the Middle
East.
Australia is expected to see a $8.2 billion bill to fix the computer glitch,
according to accountancy firm Coopers & Lybrand, while private
companies like Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) have said
they will spend at least $31.3 million on the problem.
Asia has seen both the best and worst of preparedness in the battle
against the bug. Some governments -- Singapore, Malaysia -- have
taken an activist role in promoting awareness of the problem and
goading the private sector into solutions.
Thailand's stock exchange in November urged all those involved in the
country's securities industry to begin preparing their systems to cope
with it.
Otherwise, it warned that investor confidence -- already shot by the
devalued baht and an economic slump -- could be further endangered.
"Any calculations which rely on the date, such as interest payments,
could be completely wrong and affect the confidence of investors," the
stock exchange statement said.
Other countries like India may, out of natural circumstances, be ahead
of the game. "The Millennium Bug in India is not going to be that big a
problem," said Ajay Kumar Malpani, research analyst at Caspian
Securities in Bombay.
He said India would fare better "because of its wide software
resources and its ability to provide manpower and skills (to the
problem)."
In fact, India may be a source of solutions to the bug because of its
robust software development industry. Software firms in the country
could see $5 billion in business over the next five to seven years from
the Y2K problem, according to the National Association of Software
and Service Companies.
Worst affected countries
"The worst to be affected will be countries like Japan, Hong Kong,
Singapore," Malpani said. "They have been late versus the United
States in tackling the problem. These countries woke up very late to
this problem."
Countries that have been slow to get on the computerisation track may
also be the least hurt by the problem, analysts say. India falls into that
category, but so do the lesser developed economies of Laos,
Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma.
"For some of the countries which have less developed Information
Technology (IT) infrastructure, that means they probably just bought
their first computer system and those are likely to be 2000-compliant,"
said Howard Hsu, IT analyst at U.S.-based International Data Corp's
(IDC) office in Hong Kong.
Hsu said a survey IDC conducted this year which questioned
corporations in six Asia-Pacific countries about the level of Year 2000
projects showed some disparities.
"India is very far ahead, with 44 percent of respondents already
started with Year 2000 projects," he said. "In China, only about eight
percent have already started their projects. You can see there's quite a
big gap."
The other countries surveyed yielded the following results: Hong Kong
(20 percent), Korea (17 percent), Malaysia (28 percent) and
Singapore (33 percent).
"Whether they can make the deadline is hard to say," Hsu said.
Added Maplani in Bombay, "It's a very manpower intensive job.
Economies which cannot spare manpower will find it very difficult to do
these things."
Countries like Malaysia, though small, have to import labour for
various industries including construction.
Australia-based Tickner said priorities for each country will depend on
the industries key to its economy, and that each company will have to
assess what systems are core to its existence.
"There is a generally accepted approach called triage: we will save
some, stabilise some and give up on others," he said.
By CHRISTINA TOH-PANTIN, Reuters |
