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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rational who wrote (6339)	12/10/1997 1:04:00 PM
From: eugene salazar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

sankar can you elaborate how your scenario might affect multinationals who use sea as their manufacturing centers(ie quantum)? thanks in advance eugene

To: Rational who wrote (6339)	12/10/1997 1:29:00 PM
From: Richard Grenier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Cramer Says Oracle Volume Speaks Loudly By James J. Cramer 12/10/97 8:13 AM ET Volume speaks volumes. And what happened Tuesday to Oracle smashed the decibel meter. As large capitalization funds scrambled to jettison Oracle before it became a midcap, the feverish pitch to the trading told me this was no ordinary disappointment. When you get 150 million shares trading in a stock, you must be on alert to a seachange. Maybe institutions just want to get out of Oracle. But maybe they simply want out of tech altogether, and Oracle was but a symptom of this change. Let me explain. Most of the tech blow-ups we see involve traders hitting the road after a disappointment. Very rarely do the giant-sized institutions bolt for the exit ramp that fast. They like to do things calmly, in meetings, after lots of debates and tire-kicking, In fact, the giant-sized institutions typically BUY, not sell, these disappointments, using the heavy volume to build a huge position. (And yes, there were obviously buyers of ORCL Tuesday, but that's not the point). Big institutions don't dump like this unless they are scared, scared that a new trend might be in place and they can't hesitate while fleeing. Normally they are willing to ride things out betting it is a short-term glitch. Tuesday the big money bolted, both in Oracle and in tech in general. Tuesday felt different from previous sell-offs. At one point I heard a commentator rambling on CNBC-Dow Jones about how Oracle would probably bounce right back. But the commentator will be Wrong. This Oracle collapse reminds me very much of the giant MCIC collapse that occurred 14 years ago. Massive volume, huge chunks falling like so many icebergs melting into the Arctic. It took years for MCIC to come back. It will take years for Oracle to come back, too. My question is will people see Oracle for what I saw it: a global slowdown hurting almost all tech? Or will they see it the way my e-mail box read: Ellison's a big jerk, this has nothing to do with tech, the problems are Oracle specific, it doesn't involve personal computers, etc. etc. Had I not been on the conference call I might have thought the latter. And if I were big long tech and "lugging" -- Wall Street slang for being buried alive under a mountain of bad stocks -- I think I would have trashed Cramer, too. When you are long and wrong you tend to get a little over-the-top when someone speaks the truth against you. I know; I've been there, screaming at my own wife, when we used to trade together, about how nothing has changed, the sellers are all wrong, they don't know what they are doing. I was never, I repeat, never right when I showed that level of emotion. But I think the record-breaking volume on this "core-holding in tech" shows that the big guys are in my camp. They want out of their overweighted tech positions. They are nervous. They want more safety, more non-tech S&P 500 stocks. They want into the drugs and foods. And the bonds. They want no risk between here and yearend. And unless you are in a tech stock that will be supported to help someone's performance, I don't expect a v-shaped turn in the group. Not with that kind of exit volume. Some of you e-mailed me expressing that I had been a turncoat, one even referred to Benedict Arnold. What a shame. I am not a theologian of this business. Nor am I Elmer Gantry. I am simply exercising my right to recognize that the facts have changed. I am exercising my right to hear and see what sources are telling me. That's what good trading AND good investing is all about. Don't begrudge me my flexibility. Where is it written that tech must always go up? Those of us who traded from 1983 to 1989 know better. Learn from us; don't scorn us. ************** Random Musings: Tuesday was one of those days when I missed my old job at Goldman Sachs. They were trading up a storm in Oracle and I always loved theatrics of the traders on these big down ugly days. I could just about hear in my head: "We are expanding the volume on Oracle. And we are trading 2 million Oracle, open small on the buyside." Gotta love caveat emptor Nasdaq block trading. James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback, emailed to Jjc@Jjcramerco.com. c 1997 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved.

To: Rational who wrote (6339)	12/10/1997 2:48:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Thanks for the details on the IMF gurantee arrangements. Yes this is what needs to happen in asia both for their economies long-term benefit and for the US and rest of the world. I think that the benefit to well positioned US based companies will be substantial. Some of the semi and test equipment companies may hit hard if the Taiwanese, S. Korean, etc. companies are forced to cut back cap equipment purchases drastically - which I think is quite posible. Amat, CMOS, LRCX and several other semi equip companies have recently reported increased demand from Asian companies. I think that this demand may well be false - that these companies are trying to take advantage of existing credit facilities before they must face new rounds of negotiations with their creditors and their credit either dries up or becomes much more expensive. For the short-term this turmoil is more likley to be negative than positive as many of the "experts anals" will not have it sorted out and many institutions will sell the high tech groups indescriminately. Several of the chip makers should end up coming out well ahead. I haven't been able to figure out exactly when the benefit will occur but think it is highly likely. The DRAM and SRAM suppliers and other product areas that have been hit over the past couple of years by extremely agrewssive pricing from Asia should benefit greatly. Short-term, some tendency exists for the Asian companies to try to bail themselves out of their debt troubles by exporting even more products at agreesive prices; taking advantage of the currency devaluations to increase market share. However, that will be giving away the profits they need to repay their massive debts. The IMF, US & Japan are sending the message to these economies that the debt ridden "gain market share at any cost, make profit latter" strategy just is not working and that these companies and foreign finacial institutions must act responsibly to charge fair prices to make money based on their ongoing market share and balance sheet positions. Some of these companies just are not going to make it and will either have to cut costs and increase prices or will go bankrupt. Some will probably go bankrupt no matter what they do. The overriding scenario is one in which the tremendous price pressure caused by highly subsedized expansion will largely come to an end or at least a dramatic adjustment. The result of this will be a healthier climate for US, and European semi, HDD, peripherals and other mfgs. Some companies will benefit more than others - depending on their dependence on foreign markets v. sources of supply. I think QNTM and the HDD/storage sector will remain upset for a while because fears will attribute Asias problems across the board without much rational thinking. The HDD companies can be expected to have negative earnigns impact for the next couple of quarters but the overal strength of the sector should be improving toward the end of next quarter. WDC has made more statements about the posibility that they will file a petition for a trade action against Fujitsu and other Asian suppliers. They should have an increasingly strong argument if they can show that these competitors aren't being finacialy responsible and are therefore dumping their product at prices that do not support normal debt and profit requirements. This period of change is very upsetting to the market short-term but it is the kind of structural change that has been needed for some time and will lead to much healthier US companies in the future.