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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (181729)	12/15/2013 8:04:36 PM
From: Jim P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206330

Not that you need agreement Ed,. $4.50 gas competes with oil at $95 plus for drilling dollars or strip. There will be a market response and right now it is Henry Hub premium is going to disappear in the Marcellus as pipelines reverse flows. The "flood" of gas will not happen beyond the super competitive areas that will produce at $3 gas. This market will go into shortage "another name is "substitution" particularly coal" at some point. Lots of ways to play it but bottom at sub $3 gas will be another buying opportunity in names that can ride out a "that" half of a year IMO if it happens. I will watch for sticky demand and slow to move supply in natural gas. This board has a statement in the moderator post worth repeating "it is the price of oil stupid!" This will apply to natural gas as associated gas will/should become the low cost producer but never the marginal producer. I think when ethane is more economical as a feedstock than to be burned with natural gas it may be a turning point....2017/2018 area but I am not married to that. Natural gas is now a "supply response play not a shortage play" as it was for years. Oil in north America may be the same if sweet crude is not allowed to be exported. Play the swings between over supply to refineries or under supply is still a few years off but without exports of sweet crude there will be a wall of demand. Lots of time to play and always interesting. My 2 cents, jim

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (181729)	12/15/2013 8:36:58 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206330

Ed, Both he and I hope you are right on price response. And yes - you are right that his company is not doing the mile long laterals and many frac stages. He and I have had the discussion a number of times as to what the price versus supply situation would be. I have consistently been the NG price bull - he has consistently been the supply bull. As for coal - there has been much in the news around here about coal plants closing due to the cost of new EPA regulations. I have no idea how the coal substitution for gas equation works. I would assume coal plants that are legal are devoted to base loads. Ah - and then there is shale well decline monster that someday might show up. My portfolio would love $4.50 gas. Bob PS: FWIW - we have a new high efficiency furnace. Our natural gas bill is a fraction of what it used to be in a smaller home.