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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Childs who wrote (3266)	12/10/1997 9:47:00 PM
From: DDS-OMS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Steve, <... your 8 3/4 low prediction. Why don't you share the technical explanation for that prediction...> I primarily use Elliott wave analysis and Gann lines for support and resistance--in GET software. GET has a tool that allows you to put in several days of future open-high-low-close guesses in a What If? scenerio to see what effect any proposed future price actions might have on wave analysis, etc. Today I added the open-high-low at the time the post was made and guessed at close at 13.5. Since only the intraday high and low are used, close isn't really pertinent here. VVUS is in wave 3 of a 5 wave down cycle. Using todays low and assuming this will be the low for wave 3 and that a wave 4 retracement is forthcoming (has to go to at least 17 to be a valid wave 4 retracement), then the ultimate wave 5 low calculated as a Fibonacci extension gave me 8.75 (as the highest projected low). Tonight with today's download, I cannot duplicate that result, so in my haste I made an error somewhere. Running the Fibonacci extension tonight gives an 82-86% probability of VVUS wave 5 low being BETWEEN 10 5/8 and 8 1/2. (GET is a DOS program that isn't quite the easiest to run) Gann support lines--cant come up with anything that I think looks good. Previous Gann supports at 18 1/2 and then 15 were taken out and these were the bottom 2, so in other words, VVUS fell out of the bottom of the box and can no longer calculate support off that previous starting point. Selecting secondary starting points dont yield supports that look valid to me. As someone else posted, there are no technical supports for VVUS anymore, and aside from EW and Fibonacci, that's pretty correct. Sorry, but I can't take the time during the day to write something as long as this. Shouldn't have posted that figure without some sort of explanation, so, you're right, I shouldn't have posted it at all, but as you can tell from the tone of the rest of the post, I was PO'd--and when one is angry, you say things you wouldn't when calmer. Regards, Gary