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To: Venkie who wrote (24670)	12/10/1997 3:49:00 PM
From: James H. Irwin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

The Ten Commandments and How To Make Money in Stocks: May I suggest you read How To Make Money in Stocks buy William O'Neil, editor/publisher of IBD. Taught me on what to do and how to do it, but more importantly what not to do. I refer you to the section below...possibly the greatest protector of wealth I have ever known: THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR HANDLING TROUBLED STOCKS Broken stocks require action. Most of the time the position should be reduced or eliminated. But in that one-in-five case where you have 90% confidence that you are right, buy more. With a broken stock, the greatest sin is doing nothing. Two types of stocks need to be sold-troubled situations and overachievers. The latter is a high class problem and can be handled with Know When to Say When. By definition, predicting the future produces mistakes. However, the ability to adroitly handle miscues separates the good analysts and portfolio managers from the rest of the pack. No stock market rule works 100% of the time, but the following bat at least .750: 1) It is never too late to make your final confession. If it is too early to buy more, sell the stock. 2) Forget cost. Cost is as useful as the devil's promises. The stock owes you nothing. It has no memory. 3) The selling decision is analog, not digital; it does not have to be all or nothing. Selling part of a troubled position is like going to confession-it clears the mind for future decisions. 4) Be judgmental. Corporate sinners fall into two classes: misdemeanors and arsonists. Misdemeanors are sins that cause the stock to fall less than 15%; arsonists drop the stock more than 15%. 5) The penalty for a misdemeanor is probation. Sell at least one-quarter, if not one-third of the position, and keep the stock under 24-hour surveillance. Don't even think about giving a stock on probation the benefit of the doubt. If there is any doubt, SELL! Stocks can also go on probation due strictly to their price action, a 20% drop is a good trigger. Stocks come off probation when the news turns positive. 6) Arsonists go directly to jail. Don't ever own a stock in jail. Many times sinners confess further crimes during incarceration; these jailhouse confessions increase the severity of the charge and lengthen the sentence. It is easier to make 25% on a new stock than 10% on a stock in jail. To obtain a pardon, the company must announce significant positive news, an unmistakable sign that the company's future is brighter. 7) Earnings drive stocks. Management knows this great commandment and therefore will use every accounting trick and every reserve in the cupboard to hide the cockroaches so that the quarterly earnings flow smoothly. But cockroaches are prolific breeders and there is seldom just one lone cockroach. If you see one, make the logical earnings cut and then multiply by two, if not three. Stocks rarely outperform when analysts are cutting estimates. 8) Negative facts and nasty rumors also drive stocks. Competitors, shortsellers and lawyers are the devil's accomplices. Treat negative news from these sources with the same fear as an earnings disappointment. 9) Be wary of the telltale signs of future sinners such as inventories and/or receivables growing faster than sales, a "temporary" sales slow down, earnings that meet expectations due to favorable adjustments below the operating line, an ROE materially higher than the ROA, cash flow earnings that differ markedly from reported earnings, growth spurts that disguise cyclical companies, complex companies, managements that underinvest in the future, and any and all excuses. 10) Know that the good Lord does not care one iota about your performance. Forget prayer and concentrate on that rare set of traits that all good sellers possess-guts and discipline. The Ten Commandments of Selling Troubled Stocks can be reduced to The Two Great Commandments: 1) Bad news tends to beget more bad news, and 2) Successful investors quickly admit and address their mistakes. Best of Luck Jim