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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 7:06:00 PM
From: P.M.Freedman	Respond to of 1629

After two recent purchases, willl Lucent still interested in ASND? news.com news.com

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 8:47:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1629

The January Effect: A List of Stocks Which Could Quickly Rebound 08:17am EST 10-Dec-97 Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. PXD PSIX RACN RCN STN TLB UM <thanks to the psix thread -blankmind> The January Effect: A List of Stocks Which Could Quickly Rebound William C. Mattison, Jr. (212) 338-8960 December 10, 1997 Toward the end of each year, Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. analysts identify companies whose shares could experience a rebound around year end as part of the "January effect". The attached list of stocks includes candidates which, due to poor price performance in 1997, could be subject to year-end selling for tax loss and "window dressing" purposes. As selling pressures subside, these stocks could experience a rebound by January 1998. We believe the January effect presents an opportunity for trading-oriented investors to reap significant gains over a short period of time. Based on our experience, we make the following observations and recommendations: o Investors should remember that, unless otherwise noted, Gerard Klauer Mattison has no intermediate or long-term view of the investment prospects of these securities. We believe the securities we have identified could represent short-term opportunities for investors who are trading-oriented. o We recommend purchases be made over the next several weeks. Investors should remember this is a trading opportunity and not an investment. We suggest positions, win or lose, be closed out by the end of February. o In our opinion, investors are better served by diversifying purchases over at least five or six of these securities. A basket of these securities is potentially more likely to capture the January effect. 3Com+ (COMS - 37.63; HOLD) Liposome+ (LIPO - 5.47) 3DO+ (THDO - 3.06) Manpower (MAN - 33.13; HOLD) Acclaim Ent.+ (AKLM - 4.06; HOLD) Microcell Communications+ (MICTF- 7.13) Alpha Beta Technology+ (ABTI - 2.88) Noodle Kidoodle+ (NKID - 4.00) Amylin Pharma.+ (AMLN - 6.00) Olsten (OLS - 15.00) Apple Computer+ (AAPL - 15.25; BUY) Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD - 29.25; BUY) Ascend Comm.+ (ASND - 28.63; HOLD) PsiNet+ (PSIX - 6.44; HOLD) Chesapeake Energy (CHK - 7.50) Racing Champions+ (RACN - 8.63) Cytel+ (CYTL - 1.50) Rogers Cantel Mobile Comm.+(RCN - 9.06) Diatide+ (DITI - 8.81) Station Casinos (STN - 9.00; BUY) DSI Toys+ (DSIT - 1.81) Talbots (TLB - 20.63; HOLD) Enron Oil & Gas (EOG - 19.06; HOLD) ViaSat+ (VSAT - 14.88; BUY) Galoob Toys* (GAL - 11.69; BUY) Ultrak+ (ULTK - 11.50) GT Interactive Soft.+ (GTIS - 8.88) United Meridian (UMC - 30.94) Hollywood Casino+(HWCC - 2.41; HOLD) Unova (UNA - 15.25) Immulogic+ (IMUL - 2.06) +Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co., Inc. is a market maker in the security of this company and may have a long or short position. *Within the past three years, Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co., Inc. was the manager (co-manager) of a public offering of the securities of this company and/or has performed other banking services for which it has received a fee.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:14:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

North America: Data Comm 1998 Market Forecast data.com In an industry that emphasizes the unprecedented, 1997 will be remembered for a notable first: Sales of network services grew faster than those of products. Blame it on market deregulation and technology maturation. With barriers coming down all over the world, and with such technologies as frame relay on the rise, customers are finding it easier (and more attractive) to purchase services rather than roll their own networks. "When a new technology is introduced, people don't trust third parties for rollout," says Eric Andrews, assistant vice president of marketing at Newbridge Networks Inc. (Herndon, Va.). "But over time, technology matures and service providers come up with creative ways to offer it." One of the largest segments in the network data service category is frame relay. Sales soared in 1997, both in the U.S. (doubling to $2.3 billion) and worldwide (increasing to $3.8 billion). And even though it repeatedly weathers price reductions, it should continue to grow: U.S. frame relay sales are expected to double again in 1998. "It's a commodity-like growth for frame relay," says Ray Kang, director of enterprise services marketing at MCI Communications Corp. (Washington, D.C.). "Previously, few people were switching their entire network to frame relay. But now the technology and understanding of it are mature enough that customers are implementing it for their whole network." "There's enough confidence in frame relay that enterprise customers are migrating from leased lines en masse," says Stanley Kramer, director of marketing for the WAN business unit at Cisco Systems Inc. (San Jose, Calif.). Confidence is part of it, but there's something more fundamental at work too: In many cases, customers are looking to replace their costly leased lines. "That's prevalent in 80 percent of the decisions that we see for frame relay," says Rick Malone, principal at Vertical Systems Group (Dedham, Mass.), a consultancy. Vendors see a similar pattern for ATM services, which started to show in 1997. That's because disparate data and voice networks are more and more often being run over one infrastructure. "By late 1996, ATM stopped being a trial technology," says Lawrence Gasman, president of Communications Industry Researchers Inc. (Charlottesville, Va.), a market research firm. "There were enough end-users for it to be considered seriously as a service."

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:21:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

Other analysts point out that carriers are becoming more savvy in their marketing of ATM services. "It's becoming a more application-specific technology," says Melanie Posie, analyst at International Data Corp. (IDC, Framingham, Mass.). For example, carriers are implementing frame relay service interworking for an easier migration path to ATM. "Much of the growth is coming from large frame relay customers that need higher speed connections at their central offices," says Devid Ittycheria, ATM product manager at Teleport Communications Group (TCG, Staten Island, N.Y.). eATM service sales right now are where frame relay's were four years ago. But there are differences between what happened in the U.S. and what's currently happening globally. "In developing countries, customers don't have the existing base of large frame relay networks, and they're leapfrogging directly from X.25 to managed ATM services," says Cisco's Kramer. Despite the rising popularity of frame- and cell-based services, leased lines still make up the largest portion of the data services market-by far. And while revenues aren't eye-popping, sales remain robust. That's because prices are coming down as bandwidths go up. "As transmission speed increases, leased lines decrease in price," explains Kang. "So the revenue isn't growing as fast as the bandwidth." As for the fastest growing market segments, Internet/intranet access and content hosting are the hands-down winners worldwide. Vendors and analysts expect growth to snowball through the end of the decade, as corporations continue to mine 'Net applications like electronic mail and document collaboration. Internet fax/telephony and security services also will see greater use. ISPs (Internet service providers) also are seeing huge growth in packaged solutions. Carl Showalter, director of product management for ANS Communications Inc. (Purchase, N.Y.), says that companies are seeking turnkey intranet solutions, wrapping access, hosting, e-commerce, and security into one tidy package. "Suddenly, customers are recognizing that they can't do everything by themselves," he says. What's more, those companies that have already taken the intranet plunge are continuing to add bandwidth. Showalter says he receives very few requests for anything under T1 (1.544-Mbit/s) speeds. John Scarborough, director of Internet marketing at MCI, says he's already fielding requests for 155-Mbit/s Internet access.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:22:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

In short, there appears to be no end in sight to Internet/intranet demand. "No matter what number you look at, it suggests that the industry hasn't even hit its stride yet," Scarborough says. "We've just left the block." Rising Tide Of course, the intranet and Internet developments aren't occurring in a vacuum: They're also driving other aspects of the networking industry. One of the first priorities in building an intranet, for instance, is to furnish security. And that explains why the demand for all types of security products-firewalls, authentication, encryption, and other applications-is soaring. The worldwide market grew 72 percent in 1997, with revenues hitting $877 million. That's expected to climb to $1.49 billion in 1998, with firewalls-at $512 million-leading the way in total revenues. But authentication and encryption will be the fastest growing segments (see "Inside Jobs") he 'Net/intranet effect won't end there. Web servers, groupware, electronic mail packages, and e-commerce apps also should see major growth. And don't forget about the need for companies to link legacy apps to the Web. The Gartner Group (Stamford, Conn.) says that by 2000, 80 percent of legacy access will occur via Web browsers. The continued rise of intranets is even affecting the NOS (network operating system) battle between Microsoft Corp. (Redmond, Wash.) and Novell Inc. (Orem, Utah). Bill & Co. has bundled its Internet Information Server with NT, which analysts will say will drive down the cost of low-end HTTP (hypertext transfer protocol) servers. Microsoft already has dropped NT prices and staged an aggressive marketing campaign-much to Novell's disadvantage. Speed's the Need Of course, added apps and the traffic they generate call for higher bandwidth on the backbone. That simple fact is borne out by the move to higher LAN speeds and switching. Sales of LAN switches are now outpacing sales of all infrastructure hardware (with the possible exception of servers and PBXs). Worldwide revenues were $6.9 billion in 1997-and they're expected to soar to $9.4 billion in 1998.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:23:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

arious types of Ethernet boxes lead the way, with 10 Mbit/s to the desktop and fast Ethernet still scoring big. But even gigabit Ethernet is seeing some sales now (see "Making the Switch"). But where there's a winner there's necessarily a loser. Or losers-in this case routers and hubs. As LAN switches become the enterprise workhorse, routers are looking like the old gray mare: Revenues just aren't what they used to be, with a growth rate of 14 percent worldwide in 1997 and only 12 percent in the U.S. "The [traditional collapsed backbone] router market is definitely flattening, and we're seeing a decline in sales," says Ron Sege, senior vice president of enterprise systems at 3Com Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.). "Router sales to ISPs are growing faster than router sales to the enterprise," according to Richard Palmer, director of marketing with Cisco's services provider line of business. And keep in mind that high-end routers are what ISPs want-which means sales of midrange routers are stagnating. While the hub market also declined overall, low-end devices managed a respectable showing. "A fast Ethernet hub is $101," says Sege. "It's for small to midsized companies that aren't yet thinking of switched nets." Meanwhile, multilayer switches should only hasten the trend away from collapsed backbones in 1998. "At 10 times the performance and one-tenth the price of traditional routers, routing switches will definitely move into the switch core," says Esmeralda Silva, industry analyst with IDC. Boosting bandwidth on the backbone would normally mean big revenues for NICs. And while sales of 10/100 Ethernet cards are now outrunning those of simple Ethernet adapters, 1997 revenues actually dropped, by 20 percent in the U.S. and 15 percent overseas. That was due to a bitter price war between the two major vendors of NICs, 3Com and Intel Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.). Intel opened the year by reducing prices on its 10/100 Ethernet cards by 40 percent, to about $80. 3Com then did the same. Both vendors now are preaching peace-and they say they'll focus on such value-added features as management.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:24:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

The Wide View So, if there's big growth in bandwidth on the campus backbone, has there been a commensurate jump in demand for WAN bandwidth? Yes-but not all WAN segments are universally booming, and the growth is not necessarily occurring in the corporate market. As customers around the world sign up for frame relay, FRADs and frame relay switches are the biggest benefactors. The worldwide market for these devices went up 36 percent in 1997, to $2.05 billion-in line with what Data Comm forecast. The numbers were similar in the U.S. Another factor contributing to climbing revenues in this segment is the buildout of ISP networks. "ISPs tell us they can't get enough bandwidth," says Vertical's Malone. "They're buying switches as fast as they can." But there are some clouds on this horizon. Growth in worldwide frame relay equipment revenues should dip by the end of 1998, to around 20 percent-mainly because carriers are finding that ATM lets them handle higher speeds. Enterprise switches also should contribute to this drop, especially in the U.S., as many users stop building private frame relay networks and switch to public services. Remote access hardware also enjoyed a booming 1997, but in this case the good news is relative. Worldwide revenue grew by just 35 percent-not the projected 100 percent-to $2.92 billion. MESSAGE SERVER Analysts cite a combination of factors, including increased competition on price. As heavy hitters like Advanced Computer Communications (ACC, Santa Barbara, Calif.), Bay Networks Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), and Cisco trotted out new products to compete against market leaders Ascend Communications Inc. (Alameda, Calif.) and U.S. Robotics Inc. (Skokie, Ill.), prices spiraled downward. Analysts also say that these two vendors might have been distracted by the mergers they entered nto-Ascend with Cascade Communications Corp. (Westford, Mass.) and U.S. Robotics with 3Com.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:26:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

But maybe the biggest factor in the downturn is the year-long struggle between two competing 56-kbit/s modem specs. Confused by the choice, users simply chose not to decide-deferring purchases to avoid getting stuck with obsolete technology. "How can these companies be so stupid?" says Brad Baldwin, director of remote access at IDC. "Right in the middle of this high-growth market they had to introduce a new modem protocol." The good news? Many of the factors that caused the market to stall this year should be cleared up in the coming months. Vendors are hoping to agree on a modem standard by February, and low prices could trigger larger volumes, especially outside the U.S. Following 1997 trends, analysts expect most of the growth to come in large-scale concentrators, purchased mainly by ISPs. Revenue from smaller-scale remote access servers will remain flat, as corporate customers outsource their remote access needs to carriers. Overall, growth will remain relatively low, at 27 percent worldwide. CTI Surprise Probably the biggest surprise of 1997 was the explosion of the CTI (computer telephony integration) market. Anyone who thinks that combining voice and data is merely wishful thinking might want to chew over these numbers: 196 percent growth worldwide in 1997, with revenues of $1.29 billion. Revenues are expected to more than double again next year. What's behind the bang-up performance? For one thing, companies have discovered they can save huge amounts of money by creating call centers-improving operator efficiency and reducing call duration. For another, the applications are getting cheaper and easier to use, as evidenced by new CTI APIs (application program interfaces) like Telephony Services API (TSAPI) from Novell, which allows for greater interoperability between phone switches. And even though prices are coming down, CTI vendors benefit from the fact that their gear is a big-ticket purchase. Powerhouse Consulting (Bedford, N.H.) says a 150-agent call center costs about $115,000, and that doesn't include equipment like the PBX. Speaking of PBXs: Sales of these devices were disappointing in 1997, falling 10 percent from 1996. But analysts expect a better 1998, as corporations replace older PBXs with those that handle Year 2000 issues.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:28:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 1629

Managed Cares As networks become more strategic, and as mergers and acquisitions force companies to unite disparate networks and systems, the tools required to build and maintain them are in greater demand. That's giving the lie to the old notion that even though everyone wants net management, no one is willing to pay for it. The new reality? Someone must be shelling out-since worldwide growth was 20 percent, with revenues reaching $5.4 billion. Most organizations now juggle a range of management applications, platforms, probes, and administration tools. Net managers are using SLAs (service-level agreements) for more than proving they can deliver agreed-on levels of uptime and availability to different parts of the organization. They're also deploying them in order to unify the information gathered from many different kinds of management systems and applications-and make better business use of it (see "The SLA Way"). It doesn't stop there. Applications that manage storage, security, and user desktop configurations also are proliferating. Growth in this segment is up by 45 percent, says Rick Villars, director of network architectures and management at IDC. "People have been spending a lot on [desktop management]," he notes. And that spending should continue, as PCs that bundle DMI (desktop management interface) code begin to ship. This will make them easier to manage right out of the box. And a migration to larger networks and new operating systems also is fueling expenditures on desktop management and administration. Then figure in the element management systems from such vendors as Bay, Cisco, Newbridge, and 3Com, which account for about 10 percent of worldwide management revenues: Growth in this segment is over 30 percent. There are several reasons for this. Routers, switches, and other internetworking gear form the basis of the global IP infrastructure being implemented by most carriers and corporate users, so software that manages it is in demand. And many element managers come equipped almost as mini-platforms, with such capabilities as IP autodiscovery and the ability to monitor other vendors' SNMP-based devices. They thus stand as cheaper, easier-to-use alternatives to costly management systems like Openview from Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP, Palo Alto, Calif.).

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 10:29:00 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1629

And sales of those traditional platforms reflect the popularity of these new products. In 1997, platform sales grew by 10 percent-half the rate of the net management market as a whole. But this isn't to say that platforms are falling by the wayside. A large installed base, lots of giveaway software, and lucrative support contracts have helped HP keep Openview growth rates high from year to year. "From 1992 through 1997, Openview sales sustained growth of 50 percent or better," says Karen Cunningham, Openview program manager. Meanwhile, vendors like Cabletron Systems Inc. (Rochester, N.H.) and HP are beefing up the systems management features of their products. Their targets? Telcos and ISPs that need complex network management functionality.