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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (6383)	12/10/1997 5:23:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

>>It's little comfort, but Quantum is making access to this conference call available to investors and it appears that they DID NOT LEAK this news to analysts. We should congradulate management on the way they are handling the discemination of information.<< Are you NUTS? Some of us sold at 24+ when it started to tank th eother week during one their conferences. Some thing leaked. Read back some posts and you will find that we were real worried why the stock was going down on such high volume during a metting with the ceo/cfo etc.. I still have a lot of jan 32 calls thats dust now so it does not make me happy to see this stock at sub 20. Hope fully the call is upbeat enough that we dont break though the 20 support..

To: Rob S. who wrote (6383)	12/10/1997 8:19:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Rob: Let's leave the gloom and doom and/or prosperity aside for a moment. After all, money is temporal! Realistically, QNTM = WDC + DLT Business (approximately) WDC closed at $17.5 today. The DLT business made most of the earnings, 30 cents (middle of 25-35). For 30 cents per share per quarter, i.e., $1.20 per year growing at 35-40%, annually, the price should be $12 even with a very modest 10X. If you add this to WDC's price, QNTM still should be $29.5 per share. I am obviously omiting QNTM's leadership, efficiency, lack of TFI-MR transition problem, and that the DLT should be valued within its sector (Storage Tech, etc.) with a multiple of 18. I am also not accounting for the reduction in the cost of making DDs in Asia, increase in the cost of capital for the competitors, etc. [The CEO did mention in the CC, though, that the 15 of the remaining players will soon reduce to a few, though he quite respectfully declined to speculate which ones will vanish.] Then, the question is why was the market trading anywhere between $23 and $30 over the last few weeks? Firstly, I do not suspect or believe that any news leaked, except perhaps a few minutes before the trading halt today. Secondly, given SEG and WDC announcements and obviously competitive environment and problems in SE Asia, the street could easily be betting that QNTM would also make a dismal announcement soon. Thus, the price was fluctuating. The price of QNTM zoomed up today from 23 1/8 to 23 11/16 from 3:30 until trading halted (3:45). Obviously MMs knew of the CC a few moments before the rest of us (because they had to prepare to stop trading) and they might even have got a little more info. I suspect this was a "relief" rally because the worst they expected would not happen. I am not saying there will be no panic selling tomorrow. The price may even drop quite a bit depending on sell orders. This is because MMs love to play this. I am certainly not selling because rationally, the price of QNTM even with the current earnings estimate and the future projections should be $29, just to be comparable within the sector. Good night to all and good luck tomorrow! Sankar