To: average joe who wrote (761033 ) 1/2/2014 10:48:26 PM From: Wharf Rat Respond to of 1575311 Sun Is Not A Key Driver Of Climate Change22.12.2013 22.12.2013 21:37 Age: 7 days A new paper published today contradicts the belief that long warm and cold periods in the past were caused by changes in the sun. Climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat from the sun, a new scientific study shows. The findings overturn a widely held scientific view that lengthy periods of warm and cold weather in the past might have been caused by periodic fluctuations in solar activity. Volcano impact Research examining the causes of climate change in the northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years has shown that until the year 1800, the key driver of periodic changes in climate was volcanic eruptions. These tend to prevent sunlight reaching the Earth, causing cool, drier weather. Since 1900, greenhouse gases have been the primary cause of climate change. The findings show that periods of low sun activity should not be expected to have a large impact on temperatures on Earth, and are expected to improve scientists’ understanding and help climate forecasting. Historical dataScientists at the University of Edinburgh carried out the study using records of past temperatures constructed with data from tree rings and other historical sources. They compared this data record with computer-based models of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes in the sun. They found that their model of weak changes in the sun gave the best correlation with temperature records, indicating that solar activity has had a minimal impact on temperature in the past millennium. “Until now, the influence of the sun on past climate has been poorly understood. We hope that our new discoveries will help improve our understanding of how temperatures have changed over the past few centuries, and improve predictions for how they might develop in future. Links between the sun and anomalously cold winters in the UK are still being explored.” said Dr Andrew Schurer of the University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences. The study, published in Nature GeoScience, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council. Abstract The climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial decadal and centennial scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere1. Low solar activity has been linked to cooling during the Little Ice Age (AD?1450–1850) and there may have been solar forcing of regional warmth during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD?950–1250. The amplitude of the associated changes is, however, poorly constrained with estimates of solar forcing spanning almost an order of magnitude. Numerical simulations tentatively indicate that a small amplitude best agrees with available temperature reconstructions. Here we compare the climatic fingerprints of high and low solar forcing derived from model simulations with an ensemble of surface air temperature reconstructionsfor the past millennium. Our methodologyalso accounts for internal climate variability and other external drivers such as volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in the proxy reconstructions and model output. We find that neither a high magnitude of solar forcing nor a strong climate effect of that forcing agree with the temperature reconstructions. We instead conclude that solar forcing probably had a minor effect on Northern Hemisphere climate over the past 1,000 years, while, volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be the most important influence over this period. Citation “Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium” By Andrew P. Schurer, Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl published in Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/ngeo2040 Read the abstract and get the full paper here . Source University of Edinburgh here . reportingclimatescience.com =