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To: Mason Barge who wrote (715)	12/11/1997 12:22:00 AM
From: Trader X	Respond to of 1305

This thread is a great read. And I mean that. I find myself agreeing with all sides of the debate/discussion. what comes to my mind also is how much stock prices are created by "perception", rather than reality. Just a few short sunny summer months ago, the perception was overly optimistic. '98 was going to be a banner year and these companies were going to mint money as they revolutionized the wafer industry. Now, they can do no right. A dense fog has shrouded the scenery so that we cannot even begin to glimpse into the coming year with any assurance. These companys may as well be lepers in the investment community. Rightly or wrongly, this perception is the determining factor in the value of these stocks, not the record revenues that AMAT reported a few weeks ago. That is history. All that matters now is the foggy crystal ball that advisors and institutional managers alike are peering into. What once was considered a monumental moment for Western ideology, the opening of the East to capitalism and trade with the West, is having it's growing pains now. If the great experiment in freedom survives this test, the next century can be great. But nothing is assurd. The next two years may be the great Unraveling. Very Apocalyptic, indeed. -Kevin

To: Mason Barge who wrote (715)	12/11/1997 9:20:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 1305

SELL! If anyone sees this before market open, I'd advise you to take a fast look at the news from Asia. Nikkei and Hang Seng both tanked last night, and KLIC is putting out earnings warnings on Asia weakness.

To: Mason Barge who wrote (715)	12/14/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 1305

< how in the world is an investor supposed to be able to pick the "winner" at, .08 or .13um? I'd rather go to Vegas than have all my money in JMAR or SVG or CYMI> Hmmm... dubious decision on "expected value"...seeing that its negative in Vegas. DAK

To: Mason Barge who wrote (715)	1/15/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Respond to of 1305

I am just now ctaching up with stuff and wanted to respond to this post you made. Suffice to say, I agree with your assessment with the exception of masks. The one thing that will not make a difference are the mask makers. It will be a long long time before these guys are put out of business and you will get a great deal of prior warning. In good times, bad times, and ambivalent times, the mask makers will be making new technology reticles, new design reticles, or replacement reticles for the industry. Obviously if the sector goes into a massive downturn (IC manufacturing, that is) and no new technologies are implemented, no new designs are created, and starts are cut back dramatically such that replacement tooling is not as forthcoming, then the mask guys are going to suffer. I have come to 2 quick assessments for 1998. First, when the Bulls run margin is a good thing but on the whole margining is being removed from my bag of tricks as time goes on. You are right that margin is a killer when something like this happens. Margining was a strategy that was incorporated wisely, then unwisely in my portfolio in 1997. This "investment tool" will be minimized and eliminated from my strategy in the ensuing months. The final assessment is on options. Options are like playing with fire and I have been very aggressive in this area over the past year. It is a roller coaster ride that is too tumultuous for me. My expereinces with options in 1997 was generally good but the amount of losses taken were quite substantial when you do not factor in the gains. Which really means I was lucky more times than not. Options were overall profitable for me in 1997 but I played them wrong on occasion. I was too unidimensional at times. I bought CALLS for a decent profit (once you subtract out the losses) but did not buy PUTs when I sold the CALLs which would have dramatically increased my profits. I sold covered CALLs appropriately but not enough to stem the tide of the PUTs I erroneously sold elsewhere. In actuality, if it wasn't for some massive gains in stocks such as DELL, ASYT, UTEK and the OEX, it would have been a really bad situation. My losers outnumbered my winners by a ratio of close to 3.5:1 but the winners were home runs. Many times I was just 1 strike price off or 1 month off. LCI comes to mind in the 1 month off category. Be that as it may 1998 will be a year restricted to covered CALLs and buying just a few PUTs. I mention the above two items because you are correct in your comments about the smaller investor. Your advice is sound and should be followed. Do not margin what you are not prepared to lose on a margin call or a reversal of the market. Options should be avoided at all costs too. Slow and easy wins the race. Too fast and too greedy could wind up being a disaster. Andrew Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish and somewhat aggressive but I have taken a close look at my activities over the past year and believe I would have been way more successful had I followed my own 1993-1996 strategy for investing. 1997 had me taking way more risk than I had ever taken before and had me venture off into areas that I was not comfortable with. 1998 is going back to some of my sounder basics. A little more diversified and investing more heavily into my core competencies. Andrew