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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (761817)	1/6/2014 5:07:15 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575617

Silver be a pretty good reader of mouse entrails. On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. [80] Both in summary tables and in an electoral map, Silver forecast the winner of each state. At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver's model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. [81] [82] Silver, along with at least three [83] academic-based analysts— Drew Linzer, [84] Simon Jackman, [85] and Josh Putnam [86]—who also aggregated polls from multiple pollsters—, thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the 9 swing states. [87] In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls". [88] [89] [90 en.wikipedia.org

To: neolib who wrote (761817)	1/6/2014 7:19:46 PM
From: i-node	1 Recommendation Recommended By FJB Respond to of 1575617

>> You are truly clueless if you think you can reduce what he did to calling the relatively small number of truly in play states correctly as either for or against Obama. That's the entire objective. I really think you're easily impressed, as most liberals are. Pretty much the Koan concept of intellect -- "Neo doesn't understand it so someone who does must be the New Einstein." Wrong. Silver uses ordinary statistical methods, and not even particular involved ones. Let me know when he can pick horse races using regression. There are people doing that today and I am impressed by it. I am not impressed by some guy average shit together and running linear regressions on it and stumbling into a win that wasn't that impressive.