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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mimur who wrote (232799)	1/10/2014 10:07:00 AM
From: 31Floors	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313058

HI mimur, IMO Crown Point is going to go a lot higher and it starts in q1. At the very worse CWV will drill their first hole in their CLL concession in the Nequen Basin in Q1 as the rig is being assembled there now as is my understanding. I'm extremely excited about CLL because while it goes after what will be very profitable conventional targets, it will provide their first look at their Neuquen Basin shale. This shale is regarded as one of the top two shale properties in the world, apparently, and why, while "YPF" invokes images of bad, the big boys are heading in now with very generous deals. (Oh but when they find it they'll be screwed out of their investments!!! to which I say and when will that be?) CWV's hole in CLL will garner all the attention the co. can bring to it and for me, I think there is more optimism because I know who got them their concession; a long time staffer and head of YPF exploration and development (and CEO of CWV Argentina until his unfortunate passing in 2013. So while I'm very optimistic about being able to read an NR on obtaining a drill rig for their "TDF" property very shortly, yesterday's bump may have been influenced by this NR that has nothing to do with CWV. Or just the market waking up. wintershall.com My personal take on investing in Argentina is covered off as follows (Dec 5): I believe that Argentina is waking up and that it is not in the same league of risk as other South American countries like Bolivia, Ecuador and of course, Venezuela. (Oh and I think that I'd like to visit Argentina, Peru, Chile and Uruguay!) The YPF expropriation is obviously history. You'll have to wait a long, long time before you see another expropriation. The opposite is happening now with major entering the country with a focus on shale. Even if expropriations happen in the future, that's not going to affect small companies. A swing to the left is always possible but from everything I've read, the next government post the lefty Kirchner one will be center or center right. The natives are restless and they're not looking left. There are a lot of issues, for sure. The lawsuit between Argentina and the hedge funds that hold unpaid defaulted debt (Paul Singer et al) is outstanding. Who's to say which side will win or if there is a negotiated settlement; but you know, it's not over till it's over. Argentina defaults every 14 or 15 years it seems, and the country gets through and goes on. Inflation is a problem, capital controls and dwindling foreign exchange account are other serious considerations. I believe this has been priced in and then some in the energy plays and they're starting to awaken now. The only sector I'm interested in is the energy sector in that country. While it has the resources to be energy independent and to get back to being an energy exporter, it has an energy deficit that due to the capped prices for oil and gas. This deficit has been a source of a lot of the decline in the country's fx reserves. But it is much cheaper to pay for domestic production than to import and the government knows it. Despite programs to encourage increased production (including the one to increase the well head price of NEW natural gas to US$7.50 MMBTU or about $7.70 US MCF, the trend medium term and short term is DOWN. The price controls were used to provide cheap energy to support political, agricultural, industrial sectors, too much of a good thing. It will need to continue and even increase the wellhead prices to provide domestic production. The government NEEDS to grow domestic oil and gas production for the simple reason that it has no choice. My favorite co. is Crown Point Energy CWV and I think it's a terrific opportunity here at .42. I believe that is Tinmann's favorite Argentine play as well from his writings. It took me literally months to get comfortable w/ the country, the co. is a pure no brainer w/ lots of good stuff happening in q1/14. FWIW, I own more CWV than INA, which reflects my personal bias, but for sure I like them both a lot. In a speculative PF, CWV is my largest position followed by INA. DYODD. ************* I've got a few other postings in mind for the weekend that I think will get your attention, including some very anal DD that got me to add more in the .44s and .45 (ie. about a 10% top up, which is on top of....). I've done a lot of DD and lost money many times (maybe you have too); and one ugly DD might make me regret this. You can say that about MANY of the companies we talk about, actually. If not interested in CWV, then you know what to do when you see any postings for the next bit.