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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (1084)	12/11/1997 1:53:00 AM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Doug, I assume you are referring to Alcatel which is active in the fiber market. They have a factory in Texas also. Don't forget Pirelli, Nokia and Siemens who are also in the business. But everyone is behind CIEN and NT as far as I can tell. ElectroniCast is a marketing research firm that studies this market but their reports are expensive. From time to time tidbits are published in various places. They may have a web site with limited info. I would caution that Ciena's growth rate has not slowed much. They expect to triple again next year. They pulled it off this quarter. But sequential growth has slowed and I think that may be just seasonal variation. It's the quiet before the storm which may begin to hit in January or possibly next quarter. My impression is that Ciena will be the company to beat. They will have the lion's share of the long-haul WDM market in the U.S. AT&T will be the big prize. CIEN is gearing up now to produce a bunch of systems next year. However, be warned that there are rumors flying around that CIEN is having some technical problems. I wont say anymore since it is all unsubstantiated. But it brings up the possibility of delays and you should be on the look out for possible push-outs if these problems turn into reality. But this is to be expected for any high-tech company.